NASCAR: Why to completely ignore the playoff cut line

Where the current NASCAR Cup Series Championship 4 cut line sits doesn’t matter if a winner emerges from below it, so pay attention to the battle for third, not fourth.

We are down to just one race before the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series Championship 4 at Phoenix Raceway, and that race is set to take place this Sunday afternoon at Martinsville Speedway.

Heading into this 500-lap race around the four-turn, 0.526-mile (0.847-kilometer) oval in Ridgeway, Virginia, the only driver locked into the Championship 4 is the winner of the round of 8’s first two races: Hendrick Motorsports’ Kyle Larson.

So like last year, there are still three spots open heading into the round of 8 finale.

Here is the current playoff picture.

Rank – Driver – Points (Behind)
1 – Kyle Larson – 4181 (LOCKED IN; 2 WINS)
2 – Chase Elliott – 4107 (+34)
3 – Denny Hamlin – 4105 (+32)
4 – Kyle Busch – 4074 (+1)
———-CHAMPIONSHIP 4 CUT LINE———-
5 – Ryan Blaney – 4073 (-1)
6 – Martin Truex Jr. – 4071 (-3)
7 – Brad Keselowski – 4068 (-6)
8 – Joey Logano – 4048 (-26)

However, a winner from below the cut line, whether he finishes the round of 8 in the top four on points or not, would still lock into the Championship 4.

As a result, the battle for safety is really the battle for third place, not the battle for fourth, as a winner from below the current cut line would drastically shift it.

For Chase Elliott and Denny Hamlin, this doesn’t affect them much, since they are almost the same distance ahead of the fourth place driver as they are the fifth place driver, with just one point separating Kyle Busch from Ryan Blaney after both had poor finishes this past Sunday at Kansas Speedway.

But take a look at how it would affect everybody else.

Rank – Driver – Points (Behind)
1 – Kyle Larson – 4181 (LOCKED IN; 2 WINS)
2 – New winner – 4,XXX (LOCKED IN; 1 WIN)
3 – Chase Elliott – 4107 (+33)
4 – Denny Hamlin – 4105 (+31)
———-CHAMPIONSHIP 4 CUT LINE———-
5 – Kyle Busch – 4074 (-31)
6 – Ryan Blaney – 4073 (-32)
7 – Martin Truex Jr. – 4071 (-34)
8 – Brad Keselowski – 4068 (-37)
9 – Joey Logano – 4048 (-57)

Now, it goes without saying that this “new winner” would be replaced by one of the five drivers who are listed below the cut line in this scenario, since we list nine spots and there are only eight drivers remaining.

But without knowing who that “new winner” might be, it only makes sense to look at the gaps that every driver currently below it would need to overcome to feel safe.

Of note, Joey Logano’s gap means that he has no chance to advance if there is a new winner — other than himself, of course.

But he could very well be that new winner, in which case his current sub-cut line rivals would all need to do quite a bit of work to pass Elliott or Hamlin — and yes, that includes Busch, who is still above the cut line without factoring in a potential new winner.

Finally, the “new winner” could very well be Elliott or Hamlin as well. But because they are both above that provisional “new winner” cut line anyway, this wouldn’t do much to affect the playoff picture below them.

Tune in to NBC at 2:00 p.m. ET this Sunday, October 31 for the live broadcast of the Xfinity 500 from Martinsville Speedway to see which three drivers will earn the right to challenge Kyle Larson for the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series championship on Sunday, November 7 at Phoenix Raceway. Begin your free trial of FuboTV today if you have not done so!