Formula 1: There are exactly 1,140 possible championship outcomes

Formula 1 world championship rivals Max Verstappen and Lewis Hamilton are even on points heading into this Sunday’s season finale.

With Mercedes’ Lewis Hamilton having won three consecutive Formula 1 races, he and Red Bull’s Max Verstappen are now tied at 369.5 points atop the driver standings with only the 22nd and final race remaining on the 2021 schedule.

The world championship battle is set to come to an end in this coming Sunday’s Abu Dhabi Grand Prix at Yas Marina Circuit, where Hamilton is a five-time winner but Verstappen won for the first time last December.

However, Yas Marina Circuit underwent a few changes after last year’s race. What was a 21-turn, 3.451-mile (5.554-kilometer) road course on Yas Island in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates has been converted to a 16-turn, 3.281-mile (5.280-kilometer) circuit.

So what needs to happen for each driver to win the title this Sunday?

Verstappen owns the tiebreaker over Hamilton due to having more wins (9-8), and if the pair do remain tied on points after the season finale, Verstappen is guaranteed to keep that tiebreaker.

The situation is simple. Hamilton needs to finish ahead of Verstappen to win what would be an eighth world championship, though there is one exception to this.

Verstappen can secure the title the same way, though he would win it if both finish outside of the top 10 in any way since this would result in neither one scoring any points.

The exception to Hamilton winning the title by scoring and finishing ahead of Verstappen is that if Hamilton scores two points with a ninth place finish, Verstappen could technically score two points with a 10th place finish if he also runs the fastest lap in the race. Verstappen would win the title despite finishing behind his rival, as the two would be tied at 371.5.

All of these outcomes are among the many possible scenarios in this Sunday’s race.

In total, there are 1,140 possibilities.

That seems like a pretty high number considering how simple it really is.

Here’s where we get that number.

If Verstappen wins, there are 19 other places where Hamilton can finish (second place through 20th). If Verstappen finishes in second place, the same can be said for Hamilton (first, third through 20th).

Repeat that process from third through 20th to end up with 380 possible scenarios. This inherently takes care of all of Hamilton’s finishing possibilities as well.

That gives us 380 possible scenarios, all assuming that neither driver secures the fastest lap.

Under all 380 scenarios, Verstappen could secure the fastest lap. That brings us to 760. On the other hand, Hamilton could very well do so in every scenario, bringing the total to 1,140.

Of course, the fastest lap wouldn’t matter in terms of the points scenario if, for instance, Hamilton finishes in 16th place with the fastest lap (extra point only counts if in top 10), but it is still one of the many possibilities to factor in.

Of these 1,140 scenarios, 706 result in Verstappen winning and 434 result in Hamilton winning, though this discrepancy has a lot to do with all of the scenarios in which neither one of them score and thus Verstappen wins on the tiebreaker.

Hamilton is still classified as the betting favorite.

• Lewis Hamilton: -215
• Max Verstappen: +155

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ESPN2 is set to broadcast the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix live from Yas Marina Circuit this Sunday, December 12 beginning at 7:55 a.m. ET. Start your free trial of FuboTV now and don’t miss any of the action!

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