NASCAR: Ross Chastain hasn’t clinched a playoff spot

Ross Chastain’s first career NASCAR Cup Series win in Sunday afternoon’s race at Circuit of the Americas doesn’t necessarily lock him into the playoffs.

An epic last-lap battle with Kaulig Racing’s A.J. Allmendinger in Sunday afternoon’s EchoPark Texas Grand Prix at Circuit of the Americas resulted in Trackhouse Racing Team’s Ross Chastain breaking through for the first win of his NASCAR Cup Series career.

Chastain’s recent run of success led many to believe that it was only a matter of time before he found victory lane, and he proved that on Sunday, delivering the Justin Marks and Pitbull-owned team their first win since joining NASCAR’s top level last year.

However, contrary to popular belief, the win doesn’t guarantee that the 29-year-old Alva, Florida native will be in the playoffs for the first time in his career this year.

While the playoff format is widely considered a “win and in” format, that isn’t 100% true.

The 16 playoff spots go to the driver who ranks highest in the regular season point standings, whether he wins any of the 26 regular season races or not, and the next 15 drivers who rank highest in wins.

So with more than 16 race winners, somebody will end up on the outside looking in; the tiebreaker among single-race winners then becomes points, just like the tiebreaker among non-winners is points if there are not enough winners to fill the 15 remaining spots.

While having more than 16 winners isn’t a likely scenario, it remains entirely possible for the 2022 season, given the parity which we have seen to open up the Next Gen era.

In fact, you can easily list more than 16 drivers who very well could have ended up in victory lane after one of the season’s first six races.

In these six races, six different winners have emerged, and the points leader, Hendrick Motorsports’ Chase Elliott, has not even won a race — in fact, none of the top three drivers (Elliott and Team Penske teammates Ryan Blaney and Joey Logano) in the standings have managed to do so.

So seven of the 16 playoff spots are already effectively “occupied” with 20 races still left on the regular season schedule.

Fortunately for Chastain, he is sitting in a pretty good position if points were to become a tiebreaker among single-race winners to determine the final playoff spots, in the event that more than 16 race winners emerge before the regular season comes to an end at Daytona International Speedway in late August.

Chastain sits in fifth place in the point standings, second highest among the six race winners, and he trails only Hendrick Motorsports’ Alex Bowman (fourth). Hendrick Motorsports teammates William Byron and Kyle Larson sit in sixth and 16th, respectively, while Stewart-Haas Racing’s Chase Briscoe sits in ninth and Team Penske rookie Austin Cindric sits in 12th.

Chastain is also the only driver with more than two top five finishes so far this year, and he has now reeled off four consecutive finishes of third place or better. In fact, only one other driver, Elliott, even has four top 10 finishes, and he has just one finish inside the top five.

There is not a hotter driver in the Cup Series than Chastain right now, and he could very well continue that momentum and become the first driver to officially lock into the playoffs.

Doing so entails winning twice, as there can be no more than 13 multi-race winners in the regular season. Of course, one would still need to finish the regular season in the top 30 in the point standings to remain playoff eligible, but any driver who wins twice in 26 races is pretty much a lock to do so in a series with only 32 full-time competitors.

Will a seventh different winner emerge in the 2022 season’s seventh race, the Toyota Owners 400, or will one of the six drivers who have already found victory lane become the first to officially clinch a playoff spot? This race is set to be broadcast live on Fox from Richmond Raceway beginning at 3:30 p.m. ET this Sunday, April 3. Start your free trial of FuboTV today and don’t miss a moment of the action!