NASCAR: The only driver locked into the playoffs

Through the first nine races of the 2022 NASCAR Cup Series season, only one driver has punched his ticket to the playoffs.

The NASCAR Cup Series is set to run the first of its two scheduled races at Talladega Superspeedway on the 2022 calendar, the GEICO 500, this Sunday afternoon.

This 188-lap race around the four-turn, 2.66-mile (4.281-kilometer) high-banked oval in Lincoln, Alabama is widely considered a “wild card” race, given the unpredictability generated by superspeedway racing.

Entering a race that could very well produce another new winner, the Cup Series has already seen eight different winners in nine races this season, and three of them are drivers who had never previously won a race. That number easily could have been four had Tyler Reddick held on to win last Sunday night’s dirt race at Bristol Motor Speedway.

As a result of the fact that there has only been one multi-race winner this season, only one driver is truly locked into the playoffs.

That driver is Hendrick Motorsports’ William Byron, who won the races at Atlanta Motor Speedway and Martinsville Speedway.

While logic would suggest that all eight winners are locked in, given the fact that the NASCAR playoff system is commonly referred to as having a “win and in” format, this isn’t exactly the case, and the reason why is obvious.

There are 26 regular season races, and there are just 16 playoff spots. The 16 playoff spots go to the regular season points champion, even if he doesn’t have any wins to his name, and the 15 drivers who rank next highest in wins.

In the event of more than 16 winners, the tiebreaker among single-race winners to fill the final spots is points. In the event of fewer than 16 winners, the tiebreaker among non-winners to fill the final spots is also points.

The latter scenario is the only scenario that the Cup Series has seen since the current format was introduced, but that could certainly change, especially with 17 races remaining on this year’s regular season schedule and half of the provisional playoff spots already filled.

The reason why Byron is the only driver who has locked up a playoff berth is because of the fact that there can be no more than 13 two-race winners in the regular season. As a result, with two wins already, Byron cannot fall outside of the top 13 in the wins category.

Of course, one could technically make the case that the driver of the #24 Chevrolet isn’t truly locked in yet, since a driver must maintain a spot in the top 30 in the point standings in order for any wins to count toward playoff eligibility.

But with 32 full-time drivers, Byron remaining in the top 30 to truly become playoff eligible is really just a formality.

Will one of the seven single-race winners join Byron and lock into the 2022 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs by winning this Sunday’s GEICO 500 at Talladega Superspeedway, or will a ninth different winner emerge in the 36-race season’s 10th race? Tune in to Fox at 3:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, April 24 for the live broadcast of the race. If you haven’t had the chance to start your free trial of FuboTV, do so now and don’t miss any of the excitement!