Formula 1: Full driver lineup prediction for 2023

Formula 1 silly season has gotten crazy already, despite the fact that there haven’t been a ton of confirmations. What will the driver lineup look like in 2023?

When four-time Formula 1 world champion Sebastian Vettel announced that he had made the decision to retire after the 2022 season, not many expected it to start a massive domino effect.

But that’s exactly what it has done, and what has happened thus far appears to be just the tip of the iceberg.

Two-time world champion Fernando Alonso had been in talks about a new contract with Alpine, but he ultimately decided to shift over to Aston Martin to replace Vettel instead.

Then when Alpine “confirmed” Alonso’s replacement, that replacement driver rejected the notion that he will be driving for the French outfit in 2023, setting up at least a few other changes in the driver lineup for next year.

So what will the 2023 Formula 1 driver lineup look like?

We’ll start off with the four teams with fully confirmed driver lineups for 2023, and we’ll progress to the teams with half-confirmed lineups and the teams with lineups that remain up in the air.

Locks

Red Bull

• Max Verstappen
• Sergio Perez

Ferrari

• Charles Leclerc
• Carlos Sainz Jr.

Mercedes

• Lewis Hamilton
• George Russell

Aston Martin

• Fernando Alonso
• Lance Stroll

Half-locks

Alpine

• Esteban Ocon

McLaren

• Lando Norris

Alfa Romeo

• Valtteri Bottas

Haas

• Kevin Magnussen

And here’s where things get interesting.

“Confirmed” — but do we really buy it?

McLaren

• Daniel Ricciardo

Do we buy it? No. 

Daniel Ricciardo has an option in his contract that would allow him to leave McLaren after the 2022 season. While he and the team have both stated that they plan to stick together for the remainder of his contract, which expires in 2023, recent developments indicate that these statements — like so many others in this day and age — were made simply to quiet those who were speculating otherwise.

Alpine reserve driver Oscar Piastri and his manager, former Formula 1 driver Mark Webber, had reportedly been working on a deal for him to replace Daniel Ricciardo at McLaren next year, as they had been under the impression that Fernado Alonso would remain with Alpine.

With Alonso set to leave Aston Martin, Alpine confirmed Piastri as a part of their 2023 lineup, only for Piastri to fire back and say that he won’t actually be driving for the team next year.

Piastri had been linked to Williams — again under the impression that Alonso would complete Alpine’s 2023 lineup — and you better believe he didn’t turn down an Alpine seat to compete for the slowest team on the grid.

Actual driver: Oscar Piastri

AlphaTauri

• Pierre Gasly

Do we buy it? Yes.

With a second Red Bull seat out of the picture, many have believed that Pierre Gasly could seek a new destination in the event that another solid seat opens up, and that could certainly be the case at McLaren or Alpine, even though there are other candidates to fill those seats.

But Gasly, unlike Oscar Piastri (and Alex Palou), didn’t refute the official announcement that he is staying with his team for another year.

Unconfirmed

Alpine

• Daniel Ricciardo

Is there a slim chance this seat goes to Pierre Gasly? Probably, considering how little “under contract” means anymore (case in point, the fact that we’re listing Daniel Ricciardo here), in which case AlphaTauri would have some tough decisions to make about their own lineup for next year.

But Ricciardo appears to be in line to return to the team he was so quicky to leave for McLaren back in 2020. He had far more success with Renault than he has had with McLaren, and the team apparently do not hold much of a grudge following his post-2020 departure.

They also find themselves in a bit of precarious spot, having apparently lost both Alonso and Piastri in the blink of an eye.

Haas

• Mick Schumacher

Sebastian Vettel backed Mick Schumacher to replace him at Aston Martin in 2023, a move many anticipated when you consider the relationship between the two. But with that option out, the smart move for Schumacher would be to stay at Haas, especially since a recent improvement in form indicates that the team are keen to continue on with him.

Alfa Romeo

• Guanyu Zhou

Guanyu Zhou has had a respectable rookie season in Formula 1, although he has been bitten by misfortunate more times than one. He should be able to retain his seat, though a strong Formula 2 campaign by Sauber Academy driver Theo Pourchaire could result in the 18-year-old Frenchman swiping it.

AlphaTauri

• Yuki Tsunoda

Red Bull don’t appear to have any Formula 1-ready junior drivers at the moment, and even if they did, Yuki Tsunoda has done enough to justify another season in a year when the AT03 challenger hasn’t exactly been all that great.

Williams

• Alex Albon

Alex Albon has had an exceptional first season with Williams and they would be crazy to cut ties with him, especially as they are already in need of a second driver.

UPDATE: Albon has re-signed with Williams for 2023 and beyond.

• Nyck de Vries

When Oscar Piastri was first linked to Williams earlier this year, Nyck de Vries was seen as the big loser in the deal, since his name had also been linked to the seat — and has been linked to multiple Formula 1 seats in the past.

With Piastri no longer in line to compete for the Grove-based team next year, this could finally open the door for the former Formula 2 and Formula E champion to compete at the sport’s top level.

Logan Sargeant has impressed Williams with a strong run in Formula 2 as of late, but he probably isn’t ready to make the jump to Formula 1 quite yet. Of course, Nicholas Latifi could always keep his seat as well, though that has never been seen as a likely option.