NASCAR at Daytona: Ranking the ‘must-win’ drivers

One playoff spot remains unclaimed heading into the 2022 NASCAR Cup Series regular season finale at Daytona International Speedway this Saturday night.

There are 15 drivers who have locked themselves into the 16-driver NASCAR Cup Series playoffs by winning at least one of the 26-race regular season’s first 25 races, leaving just one open spot heading into the regular season finale this Saturday night at Daytona International Speedway.

If a 16th different winner doesn’t emerge in this 160-lap Coke Zero Sugar 400 around the four-turn, 2.5-mile (4.023-kilometer) high-banked Daytona Beach, Florida oval, there are just two drivers who have a chance to claim that 16th spot on points: Team Penske’s Ryan Blaney and Joe Gibbs Racing’s Martin Truex Jr.

Blaney currently holds that 16th spot by 25 points over Truex. But if a new winner does emerge (provided it isn’t one of the two full-time drivers who can’t possibly finish in the top 30 in the point standings and thus cannot earn playoff eligibility — or a part-time driver), then both will be out.

There are 13 drivers (other than Blaney and Truex) who would secure that 16th and final playoff spot simply by winning Saturday night’s race.

Here is a list of those 13 drivers, ranked by their odds of finding victory lane.

NOTE: +1200 odds indicate that a successful $100 bet wins $1,200 ($1,300 payout).

1. Bubba Wallace, #23 23XI Racing Toyota: +1200
2. Brad Keselowski, #6 RFK Racing Ford: +1800
3. Erik Jones, #43 Petty GMS Motorsports Chevrolet: +2400
4. Ricky Stenhouse Jr., #47 JTG Daugherty Racing Chevrolet: +2700
5. Aric Almirola, #10 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford: +3000
6. Austin Dillon, #3 Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet: +3000
7. Chris Buescher, #17 RFK Racing Ford: +3500
8. Michael McDowell, #34 Front Row Motorsports Ford: +4000
9. Justin Haley, #31 Kaulig Racing Chevrolet: +5500
10. Cole Custer, #41 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford: +8000
11. Ty Dillon, #42 Petty GMS Motorsports Chevrolet: +10000
12. Harrison Burton, #21 Wood Brothers Racing Ford: +15000
13. Todd Gilliland, #38 Front Row Motorsports Ford: +15000

Of course, Blaney and Truex can both secure the spot by winning Saturday night’s race as well, though they aren’t necessarily in must-win situations. Blaney is tied with Wallace at +1200, while Truex is tied with Keselowski at +1800.

As for the overall race odds, Blaney and Wallace trail only Hendrick Motorsports’ Chase Elliott at +1000. They are also tied with Joe Gibbs Racing’s Denny Hamlin at +1200 and just ahead of Hendrick Motorsports teammates Kyle Larson and William Byron and Team Penske’s Joey Logano at +1300.

In terms of value, look no further than Burton at +15000. While he is tied with Gilliland as a longshot among these 13 drivers, he was running up front in the Daytona 500 when he was taken out in a wreck, and the #21 Ford has been especially strong in superspeedway races over the last few seasons.

Bet now at WynnBET!

The Coke Zero Sugar 400 is set to be broadcast live from Daytona International Speedway on NBC beginning at 7:00 p.m. ET this Saturday, August 27. Take advantage of FuboTV’s free trial offer and don’t miss the 2022 regular season finale!