Formula 1: Full driver lineup prediction for the 2023 season

The 2023 Formula 1 driver lineup is slowly but surely coming together. Who will secure the remaining open seats for next year?

Zhou Guanyu become the 17th driver confirmed as part of the 2023 Formula 1 lineup when Alfa Romeo confirmed that they had extended his contract through next year amid a solid rookie season.

With the confirmation, the 23-year-old Chinese driver is the 16th driver locked into his seat for next year, as one of the 17 confirmed drivers, AlphaTauri’s Pierre Gasly, could still end up elsewhere.

So while AlphaTauri have “confirmed” both Gasly and Yuki Tsunoda for 2023, Alfa Romeo are one of six, not seven, teams with fully confirmed lineups for next year.

What will the 2023 driver lineup ultimately look like? Here is our prediction.

Two seats confirmed

Red Bull

• Max Verstappen
• Sergio Perez

Ferrari

• Charles Leclerc
• Carlos Sainz Jr.

Mercedes

• George Russell
• Lewis Hamilton

McLaren

• Lando Norris
• Oscar Piastri (R)

Alfa Romeo

• Valtteri Bottas
• Zhou Guanyu

Aston Martin

• Fernando Alonso
• Lance Stroll

One seat confirmed

Alpine

• Esteban Ocon

AlphaTauri

• Yuki Tsunoda

Haas

• Kevin Magnussen

Williams

• Alex Albon

That leaves four open seats, one at each of Alpine, Haas, AlphaTauri and Williams.

Alpine

Prediction: Pierre Gasly

Alpine were shocked when Fernando Alonso decided to leave the team to replace Sebastian Vettel at Aston Martin, but they thought they had a backup plan in place with reserve driver Oscar Piastri.

Despite announcing that Piastri would be joining the team next year, that won’t actually happen, as Piastri had signed a contract with McLaren to replace Daniel Ricciardo, and the FIA Contract Recognition Board (CRB) ruled in McLaren’s favor.

AlphaTauri have Pierre Gasly under contract through the 2023 season, but they have been open to the idea of letting him sign elsewhere if they can find a viable replacement. Alpine clearly have the top remaining open seat, and his name has been linked to it.

If they can’t land Gasly, that would give them a good opportunity to sign Nyck de Vries, who impressed in his Formula 1 debut with Williams in Monza. Should de Vries land with Williams, however, don’t sleep on the possibility of Alpine junior and Formula 2 driver Jack Doohan receiving a promotion.

Mick Schumacher and Daniel Ricciardo are really nothing more than dark horse candidates here at this point.

UPDATE: Gasly has been confirmed by Alpine for 2023.

AlphaTauri

Prediction: Nyck de Vries (R)

Despite the fact that they won’t be signing IndyCar driver Colton Herta, AlphaTauri are still open to the idea of letting Pierre Gasly sign with Alpine, presumably Alpine, should they be able to land a solid replacement.

Nyck de Vries would undoubtedly be a solid replacement, given what his resume includes. The 2019 Formula 2 champion and 2020-2021 Formula E world champion finally got a chance to make his Formula 1 debut with Williams in Monza, and he scored two points, giving him one-third of the team’s points this year (through 16 races) in just a single start.

Should de Vries sign with Alpine or Williams, however, Gasly is set for another year with AlphaTauri, and the contract is already in place to make that happen without any drama.

UPDATE: De Vries has been confirmed by AlphaTauri for 2023.

Williams

Prediction: Logan Sargeant (R)

While Williams would surely be content with landing Nyck de Vries full-time as Nicholas Latifi’s replacement, they would likely have to beat out Alpine and/or AlphaTauri to do so, and despite the 27-year-old Dutchman’s impressive debut with the team, that probably won’t happen.

Fortunately, they appear to have a solid backup plan in place with Williams junior and Formula 2 driver Logan Sargeant, provided that he scores the necessary points to earn an FIA Super License. Sargeant would become the first American Formula 1 driver since 2015.

If not, could Alpine loan them Jack Doohan, like they were initially planning to do with Oscar Piastri when they expected Fernando Alonso back, or are Mick Schumacher and Daniel Ricciardo really possibilities to consider?

Haas

Prediction: Nico Hulkenberg

Haas are the true wild card in this year’s silly season. They could still opt to bring back Mick Schumacher for a third season, and that is a possibility which many seem to believe could be in the best interest of all involved.

But if not, there are three names that have been mentioned as possibilities: Daniel Ricciardo, Nico Hulkenberg, and Antonio Giovinazzi.

Ricciardo has been linked to a number of seats since it was announced that he will leave McLaren, but you can’t help but think that there is a bit of sentimental value in pitching those possibilities.

Hulkenberg has emerged as the recent favorite, but he has been linked to a number of seats since he last competed full-time in 2019. So should we really take that with more than grain of salt?

As for Giovinazzi, his Ferrari tires cannot be ignored. While Haas have said that they won’t wait for Ferrari to determine their second driver, it certainly doesn’t bode well for Schumacher that his relationship with the Prancing Horse could be nearing its end. Plus, Haas do seem to be waiting to make a decision, don’t they? That may bode well for Giovinazzi.