Formula 1: How many points does Max Verstappen need?

How many points does Max Verstappen need throughout the rest of the 2022 Formula 1 season to guarantee he wins the world championship?

Red Bull’s Max Verstappen is on the verge of clinching his second consecutive Formula 1 world championship, and while he wasn’t able to do it in last Sunday’s Singapore Grand Prix at Marina Bay Street Circuit, he has a better chance to do it in this coming Sunday’s Japanese Grand Prix at Suzuka Circuit.

He is set to enter this 53-lap race at the 18-turn, 3.609-mile (5.808-kilometer) road course in Suzuka, Mie Prefecture, Japan 104 points ahead of Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc in the driver standings. Red Bull’s Sergio Perez, the only other driver in championship contention, sits two points behind Leclerc in third.

There has been a lot of talk about how Verstappen can clinch the title in this race, and the simplest solution is by winning and running the fastest lap. Under this scenario, he will score 26 points, and Leclerc can score no more than 18.

This would give the reigning world champion a 112-point lead, and there will be a maximum of 112 points remaining over the course of the 22-race season’s final four races.

Race wins pay 25 points each, and there is an additional point on the table for the driver who runs the fastest lap in each race. There is also one more sprint qualifying race left on the calendar, and the winner scores eight points.

Verstappen has already clinched the tiebreaker over Leclerc, having won 11 races so far in 2022. Leclerc has won three, so he can’t pass Verstappen in this category. In fact, nobody can.

But let’s say that Leclerc scores maximum points throughout the rest of the year. How many would Verstappen need to clinch?

Max Verstappen’s magic number, if you will, is 34.

If you add 34 points to Verstappen’s current point total, that puts him 138 points ahead of Leclerc, which is how many points are still available heading into the Japanese Grand Prix.

The reason why Verstappen can clinch with just 26 points — not 34 — in the Japanese Grand Prix itself is because a win and fastest lap for him takes away that possibility for Leclerc, leaving him with just 130 potential points on the table as opposed to 138. If you add 26 to Verstappen’s current lead of 104, you get exactly 130.

If Verstappen scores 34 points via a combination of non-wins, that 138-point total is still a possibility for Leclerc. And if Leclerc secures that maximum and Verstappen only scores 33 points, Leclerc would win the title.

But any Verstappen win eliminates Leclerc from achieving that maximum total, opening up the aforementioned clinching scenario for this weekend.

Of course, even without a win, Verstappen can clinch the title this weekend by beating Leclerc by at least eight points and by beating Perez by at least six.

ESPN is set to broadcast the Japanese Grand Prix live from Suzuka Circuit beginning at 1:00 a.m. ET this Sunday, October 9, so be sure not to miss your opportunity to begin a free trial of FuboTV!