Formula 1: What if Sebastian Vettel hadn’t retired?

Sebastian Vettel’s announcement that he was set to retire from Formula 1 at the end of the 2022 season set off a massive silly season chain reaction.

In late July, four-time Formula 1 world champion Sebastian Vettel announced that the 2022 season would be his last, despite previous reports that he was working with Aston Martin on a deal to return for at least another season.

While losing a four-time world champion and the sport’s third winningest driver of all-time was huge news in itself, this announcement’s effect on silly season continues to be felt as the driver lineup is slowly but surely pieced together for 2023.

Alpine’s Fernando Alonso, a two-time world champion himself, decided to sign with Aston Martin as Vettel’s replacement alongside Aston Martin.

Alpine believed that they could promote reserve driver Oscar Piastri to take Alonso’s place, but he had already signed with McLaren to replace Daniel Ricciardo. Alpine remain in search of a replacement for Alonso.

So what if Vettel had decided to return for another year?

If that had been the case, Alpine’s lineup likely would have been set with Alonso and Esteban Ocon, who has been under contract with the team through 2024 since last year.

While Piastri had been rumored to join Williams on loan from Alpine, with the Enstone outfit originally keen to keep Alonso, the fact that Piastri is set to join McLaren likely wouldn’t have changed, as it was revealed that he signed with them well before Vettel’s retirement was revealed.

He did so under the impression that Alpine were going to keep Alonso. Had Vettel’s retirement been announced earlier and Alonso’s departure followed suit at that time, perhaps Piastri would have remained with Alpine.

But had it not been announced at all, Piastri would still be heading to McLaren, with the team and Ricciardo indeed set to cut ties a year before the original expiration date of their contract.

So not much actually would have changed here.

But change could still be felt throughout the rest of the grid.

The second Alpine was left open, and Pierre Gasly, who had previously been confirmed by AlphaTauri for another season in 2023, ended up being announced as its driver.

While AlphaTauri, which had also re-signed Yuki Tsunoda, had said that they would only be willing to allow Gasly to sign elsewhere if they were able to land an FIA Super License exemption for IndyCar driver Colton Herta, which didn’t happen, they left open the possibility of signing somebody else and thus allowing Gasly to move to Alpine.

This wouldn’t have happened had Vettel not retired, as Alpine wouldn’t have any open seats.

The change may not stop there, either.

Nyck de Vries, who was originally seen as the “biggest loser” in the reported deal that would have sent Piastri to Williams as Nicholas Latifi’s replacement, ultimately landed Gasly’s seat at AlphaTauri following an impressive Formula 1 debut in Monza in place of Alex Albon at Williams.

Naturally, de Vries had been considered for the Williams seat, but with Piastri moving to McLaren and de Vries going to AlphaTauri, that Williams seat remained without a confirmed driver.

De Vries moving to AlphaTauri instead of Williams also wouldn’t have been possible without Vettel’s retirement.

Instead, Williams were left with an open seat, and while Herta joining Formula 1 in 2023 is out of the question, the sport is set to get its first American driver in eight years anyway.

Williams junior and Formula 2 driver Logan Sargeant emerged as a potential replacement for Latifi alongside Albon, and the team announced that, as long as he secured a Super License, he would indeed be the one to get that seat. He ended up securing it.

Aside from the Williams seat, the only seat left open on the grid for next year was Mick Schumacher’s Haas seat, which Nico Hulkenberg is set to take.

While Vettel stepping away has indeed had massive implications on next year’s grid, those implications don’t specifically pertain to this one.

That being said, Vettel did, of course, initially back Schumacher to take his seat at Aston Martin before Alonso signed, but that obviously wouldn’t have happened at all had Vettel not made the decision he made. So Schumacher’s situation was always going to be up in the air.

But Vettel’s decision did still play a slight role in Schumacher’s future, as he too had been rumored as a potential Williams driver for next year if Sargeant hadn’t been able to secure his Super License.