2023 NASCAR championship odds: Surprising early favorite?

Joey Logano, Team Penske, NASCAR - Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports
Joey Logano, Team Penske, NASCAR - Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports /

The odds to win the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series championship have been revealed. Who is the favorite to hoist the trophy at Phoenix Raceway in November?

The 2023 NASCAR Cup Series season is scheduled to get underway in under a month and a half, with the offseason between the 2022 and 2023 campaigns more than halfway complete.

Set to kick off the 36-race season is the 65th annual Daytona 500 at Daytona International Speedway, though on-track action is actually scheduled to get underway two weeks prior — and in under a month.

The Busch Light Clash preseason exhibition race is scheduled to take place at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum on Sunday, February 5.

Who is the favorite to win the 2023 title?

Here are the early odds to win the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series championship, provided by FanDuel.

NOTE: +550 means a successful $100 bet wins $550 ($650 payout).

  • Chase Elliott, Hendrick Motorsports: +550
  • Kyle Larson, Hendrick Motorsports: +650
  • Denny Hamlin, Joe Gibbs Racing: +900
  • Ryan Blaney, Team Penske: +1000
  • Ross Chastain, Trackhouse Racing Team: +1000
  • Joey Logano, Team Penske: +1200
  • Christopher Bell, Joe Gibbs Racing: +1200
  • William Byron, Hendrick Motorsports: +1200
  • Kyle Busch, Richard Childress Racing: +1200
  • Martin Truex Jr., Joe Gibbs Racing: +1400
  • Tyler Reddick, 23XI Racing: +1600
  • Kevin Harvick, Stewart-Haas Racing: +1900
  • Alex Bowman, Hendrick Motorsports: +3000
  • Bubba Wallace, 23XI Racing: +4000
  • Chase Briscoe, Stewart-Haas Racing: +4000
  • Ryan Preece, Stewart-Haas Racing: +5000
  • Daniel Suarez, Trackhouse Racing Team: +5000
  • Austin Cindric, Team Penske: +5000
  • Brad Keselowski, RFK Racing: +6000
  • Ty Gibbs (R), Joe Gibbs Racing: +6000
  • A.J. Allmendinger, Kaulig Racing: +9500
  • Erik Jones, Petty GMS Motorsports: +9500
  • Noah Gragson (R), Petty GMS Motorsports: +9500
  • Chris Buescher, RFK Racing: +9500
  • Austin Dillon, Richard Childress Racing: +20000
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr., JTG Daugherty Racing: +20000
  • Corey LaJoie, Spire Motorsports: +20000
  • Justin Haley, Kaulig Racing: +20000
  • Ty Dillon, Spire Motorsports: +20000
  • Cody Ware, Rick Ware Racing: +20000
  • B.J. McLeod, Live Fast Motorsports: +20000
  • Aric Almirola, Stewart-Haas Racing: +20000
  • Michael McDowell, Front Row Motorsports: +20000
  • Harrison Burton, Wood Brothers Racing: +20000
  • Todd Gilliland, Front Row Motorsports: +20000

It’s no surprise that Chase Elliott is the early championship favorite, even though he has been the lowest finisher in the Championship 4 in each of the last two years.

The 2020 champion is the only driver who has advanced to the winner-take-all round in each of the last three years, and in the first season of the Next Gen car last year, he led the series in wins, points, average finish, and laps led. He didn’t lead any of those categories in his championship season.

There were several races he could have won last year that he didn’t, though the same can be said for a number of drivers in a chaotic opening season for the Gen 7 machine.

The fact that there were a record 19 different winners, including four who weren’t in the playoffs, proved just how hard it was to pin down who was going to contend from week to week.

That is, of course, also represented in the fact that the championship odds for the early favorite are only +550 (indicative of a 1 in 6.5 chance).

What is surprising, however, is the fact that there are eight drivers with the same or better odds than reigning champion Joey Logano.

Sure, Logano has only gotten to the Championship 4 in even years, but the way he performed down the stretch in 2022, including an absolutely dominant effort in the championship race, indicates that he wants to end that trend. No driver has won back-to-back titles since Jimmie Johnson won five in a row from 2006 to 2010.

It is also a bit surprising to see so many drivers who compete for decent teams, such as Austin Dillon, Justin Haley, and Aric Almirola, listed with the same odds as drivers who compete for teams that are generally backmarkers, such as B.J. McLeod and Cody Ware. McLeod isn’t even a full-time driver, and Ware hasn’t even been formally announced as part of the 2023 lineup.

All-time NASCAR Cup Series wins list. dark. Next

The 2023 NASCAR Cup Series season is scheduled to get underway on Sunday, February 19.