Formula 1: Lewis Hamilton’s chances to win an 8th championship tumble

Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes, Formula 1 (Photo by Qian Jun/MB Media/Getty Images)
Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes, Formula 1 (Photo by Qian Jun/MB Media/Getty Images) /

Lewis Hamilton’s chances to win an eighth Formula 1 world championship have taken a hit to start the 2023 season, despite his runner-up finish in Melbourne.

Red Bull have continued their momentum from the 2022 Formula 1 season with the new RB19 in 2023, winning the first three races of the year.

But Mercedes have continued to struggle after winning just one of 22 races last year. Their eight-year constructor championship streak, which included an average of nearly 14 wins per year from 2014 to 2021, came to a screeching halt.

Last season, seven-time world champion Lewis Hamilton saw his personal 15-year winning streak come to an end, and he finished in a career-worst sixth place in the driver standings. Additionally, he finished below a non-title-winning teammate for the first time since 2011, when he was still with McLaren.

While he sits ahead of teammate George Russell in the standings through the first three races of the 2023 season, Hamilton’s chances to win a record-breaking eighth title have taken a hit, even after he followed up back-to-back fifth place finishes to open up the year with a runner-up finish in the Australian Grand Prix.

In terms of implied percentage, no driver has seen his chances to win the 2023 Formula 1 title decrease more than Lewis Hamilton has since the season began.

In the preseason, he was listed as the second favorite behind Red Bull’s Max Verstappen at +300 (bet $100 to win $300, $400 total payout), implying his chance to win was 25%. Now he is listed at +2800, implying his chance to win is only 3.45%.

Just seven drivers have odds that aren’t +20000 after the season’s first three races. Here is a list of those drivers, courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

  • Max Verstappen, Red Bull: -750
  • Sergio Perez, Red Bull: +1500
  • Fernando Alonso, Aston Martin: +2100
  • Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes: +2800
  • George Russell, Mercedes: +4900
  • Charles Leclerc, Ferrari: +4900
  • Carlos Sainz Jr., Ferrari: +11000

Full Formula 1 odds are listed at FanDuel Sportsbook. Odds and availability subject to change. Sign up today and take advantage of the latest promotion!

Red Bull teammates Verstappen and Sergio Perez and Aston Martin’s Fernando Alonso, the three drivers ahead of Hamilton in the standings, have seen their chances to win the title increase since the start of preseason testing.

Ferrari teammates Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz Jr. and Mercedes’ George Russell, like Hamilton, have seen their chances decrease, but the highest of the three, Leclerc, was only listed at +600 (14.29% implied chance).

Next. All-time Formula 1 wins list. dark

Following a four-week “spring break”, the 2023 Formula 1 season is scheduled to resume on Sunday, April 30 with the Azerbaijan Grand Prix, which is set to be broadcast live on ESPN from Baku City Circuit beginning at 7:00 a.m. ET. Begin a free trial of FuboTV now and don’t miss it!