NASCAR: Michigan starting lineup if qualifying is canceled

NASCAR hasn’t had a Cup Series qualifying session rained out in quite some time. What happens if that changes this weekend at Michigan International Speedway?

Earlier in the season, it seemed as though qualifying sessions for NASCAR Cup Series races were few and far between, given the bad weather that had plagued multiple Saturdays.

While bad weather has still been somewhat of a theme as of late, qualifying sessions have set the starting lineups for each of the last eight races.

Will that streak continue for this Sunday afternoon’s FireKeepers Casino 400 at Michigan International Speedway?

According to The Weather Channel, there is only an 11% chance of rain on Saturday afternoon. But in August, you never know when a popup shower might occur, so let’s take a look at what the starting lineup will look like if qualifying cannot take place as planned.

In the absence of practice and qualifying during the 2020 season, NASCAR came up with a formula to set the starting lineups. They retained that metric for the same reason in 2021.

Even when NASCAR practice and qualifying returned on a more regular basis in 2022, that formula was kept around for two reasons.

If qualifying happens, this metric is used to set the qualifying order. If it is canceled, it functions as it was originally intended: to set the starting lineup. Both remain true in 2023.

This formula includes four variables, though for drivers who drive the same cars from race to race, that formula effectively includes only three.

The driver’s finish in the most recent race is weighted at 25%, the car owner’s finish in the most recent race is weighted at 25%, the rank of the car owner in the owner standings is weighted at 35%, and the rank of the driver’s fastest lap in the most recent race is weighted at 15%.

For drivers who drive the same car every week, the first two categories are combined into one category weighted at 50%.

Here is what the starting lineup will look like for Sunday’s FireKeepers Casino 400 at Michigan International Speedway if qualifying cannot take place as planned.

Provisional Michigan starting lineup
1st – Denny Hamlin
2nd – Kyle Busch
3rd – Chris Buescher
4th – Joey Logano
5th – Brad Keselowski
6th – Kevin Harvick
7th – Martin Truex Jr.
8th – Chase Elliott
9th – Ryan Preece
10th – William Byron
11th – Tyler Reddick
12th – Ryan Blaney
13th – Bubba Wallace
14th – Kyle Larson
15th – Christopher Bell
16th – Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
17th – Ty Gibbs
18th – Aric Almirola
19th – Austin Dillon
20th – Alex Bowman
21st – Ross Chastain
22nd – Michael McDowell
23rd – Chase Briscoe
24th – Todd Gilliland
25th – Erik Jones
26th – A.J. Allmendinger
27th – Justin Haley
28th – Austin Cindric
29th – Daniel Suarez
30th – Noah Gragson
31st – Corey LaJoie
32nd – Harrison Burton
33rd – J.J. Yeley
34th – Ty Dillon
35th – Cole Custer
36th – Josh Bilicki
37th – Austin Hill

If Saturday’s single-car qualifying session can take place as planned, the drivers listed in the even positions are set to qualify in group one, and the drivers listed in the odd positions are set to qualify in group two. The fastest five drivers in each group advance to the round two shootout for the pole position.

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The real weather concern this weekend may come on Sunday, when there is a 55% chance of scattered thunderstorms. That chance increases to 58% on Monday. Could NASCAR see yet another Cup Series race’s schedule altered due to bad weather?

The FireKeepers Casino 400 is set to be broadcast live on USA Network from Michigan International Speedway beginning at 2:30 p.m. ET this Sunday, August 6. Begin a free trial of FuboTV now if you have not already done so!