NASCAR: Indianapolis starting lineup if qualifying is canceled

Indianapolis Motor Speedway is set to host the third road course race of the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series season this Sunday afternoon.

NASCAR and IndyCar are set for their fourth doubleheader weekend at Indianapolis Motor Speedway going back to 2020. The track’s interior road course is scheduled to host the Xfinity Series for the fourth straight year and the Cup Series for the third.

Bad weather and schedule changes have been a theme of the summer portion of this year’s Cup Series schedule, but surprisingly, qualifying hasn’t been canceled in quite some time. The last nine races have seen their qualifying sessions take place as planned.

Could that change ahead of Sunday afternoon’s 82-lap race around the 13-turn, 2.439-mile (3.925-kilometer) Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course?

According to The Weather Channel, there is currently a 42% chance of rain on Saturday afternoon in Speedway, Indiana, which is when the Cup Series qualifying session is set to take place.

If qualifying does get rained out, the starting lineup would be set by the metric, which NASCAR began using in 2020.

Though practice and qualifying returned on a more regular basis in 2022, NASCAR kept this formula around to set the qualifying order for races. In the absence of qualifying, the metric serves its original purpose and sets the starting lineups.

The four variables included in this metric are the driver’s finish in the most recent race (25%), the car owner’s finish in the most recent race (25%), the car owner’s rank in the owner standings (35%), and the rank of the driver’s fastest lap in the most recent race (15%).

For drivers who drive the same cars from race to race, this is effectively simplified to three variables, with the first two being combined into one category weighted at 50%.

If Saturday’s qualifying session is canceled, here is what the starting lineup for the Verizon 200 at the Brickyard will look like.

Indianapolis provisional starting lineup
1st – Martin Truex Jr.
2nd – Denny Hamlin
3rd – Brad Keselowski
4th – Chris Buescher
5th – Kyle Larson
6th – Ross Chastain
7th – Kevin Harvick
8th – Christopher Bell
9th – Ryan Blaney
10th – Daniel Suarez
11th – Ty Gibbs
12th – Joey Logano
13th – Austin Cindric
14th – Bubba Wallace
15th – Erik Jones
16th – Aric Almirola
17th – Corey LaJoie
18th – Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
19th – William Byron
20th – Tyler Reddick
21st – Michael McDowell
22nd – Harrison Burton
23rd – A.J. Allmendinger
24th – Austin Dillon
25th – Justin Haley
26th – Ryan Preece
27th – Alex Bowman
28th – Kyle Busch
29th – Ty Dillon
30th – Chase Elliott
31st – Todd Gilliland
32nd – Chase Briscoe
33rd – Josh Bilicki
34th – Jenson Button
35th – Andy Lally
36th – Mike Rockenfeller
37th – Shane van Gisbergen
38th – Kamui Kobayashi
39th – Brodie Kostecki

If qualifying takes place, the drivers listed in the even positions will be in group one, and the drivers listed in the odd positions will be in group two. The fastest five drivers in each group would advance to the second round shootout for the pole position.

DraftKings Sportsbook, which is now offering fans an instant $150 just for betting $5, lists Joe Gibbs Racing’s Martin Truex Jr. as the +400 favorite to win Sunday’s race.

Here are the favorites to win.

With odds and availability subject to change, lock in your $150 now!

NBC is set to broadcast the Verizon 200 at the Brickyard live from the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course beginning at 2:30 p.m. ET this Sunday, August 13. If you have not yet begun a free trial of FuboTV, don’t miss your chance to do so now!