NASCAR: Every remaining driver’s probability to win the championship
By Asher Fair
Seven drivers are trying to fill the three spots alongside Kyle Larson in the NASCAR Cup Series Championship 4 at Phoenix Raceway.
For the second time in the last three seasons, Hendrick Motorsports’ Kyle Larson won the round of 8 opener to become the first driver to clinch a spot in the NASCAR Cup Series Championship 4 at Phoenix Raceway.
This year, he did it with a nail-biter victory over Joe Gibbs Racing’s Christopher Bell, the lone remaining championship contender from last year’s Championship 4, at Las Vegas Motor Speedway on Sunday afternoon.
As expected, Larson’s fourth win of the 2023 season made him the betting favorite to win the championship at FanDuel Sportsbook, which is crediting fans with an instant $200 just for betting $5 on any driver to win the title.
Larson’s odds shortened from +350 to +160 following his South Point 400 victory.
Just how good is Larson’s chance to win a second title this year, and how good are the chances for each of the other seven remaining contenders vying for the three remaining Championship 4 spots?
Because the sportsbooks will always give themselves an advantage, the percentages implied by the odds add up to more than 100% for all eight contenders (in this case, 115.8%). So we scaled them down to come up with these figures.
Here are the implied championship chances for all eight remaining NASCAR Cup Series championship contenders.
- Kyle Larson, Hendrick Motorsports: +160 (33.21%)
- William Byron, Hendrick Motorsports: +340 (19.63%)
- Martin Truex Jr., Joe Gibbs Racing: +550 (13.29%)
- Denny Hamlin, Joe Gibbs Racing: +550 (13.29%)
- Christopher Bell, Joe Gibbs Racing: +900 (8.64%)
- Tyler Reddick, 23XI Racing: +1400 (5.76%)
- Chris Buescher, RFK Racing: +2500 (3.32%)
- Ryan Blaney, Team Penske: +2900 (2.88%)
Odds and availability subject to change. Lock in your $200 now before it’s too late!
The round of 8 is scheduled to resume this Sunday, October 22 with the 4Ever 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway at 2:30 p.m. ET, and it is scheduled to conclude on Sunday, October 29 with the Xfinity 500 at Martinsville Speedway at 2:00 p.m. ET.
The season finale is scheduled to take place at Phoenix on Sunday, November 5 at 3:00 p.m. ET. Live coverage of all three events is set to be provided by NBC.
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