NASCAR has officially gotten rid of the knockout Championship 4 playoff format and brought back a version of the Chase that was previously used from 2004 to 2013.
It is still not without its flaws, but for the most part, it is a huge improvement from the previous format that had fans begging for a change and calling for a format that rewards consistency, without nearly as much of the randomness that a one-race, winner-take-all championship finale provided.
The new format puts more of the focus back on what is happening at the front instead of what was happening between drivers on the cut line who were battling mid-pack under the previous format. Furthermore, it actually brings back what had been longtime fan overreaction of drivers getting hot or cold at the right or wrong time back to relevance.
In other words, a driver's consistency during the summer months could be far more important to their season-long success than it ever was under the prior format, when getting cold at the wrong time could outweigh any momentum they had built up beforehand.
With a new NASCAR season just around the corner, here are three 2025 playoff drivers who could be negatively impacted most by the Chase format.
Shane van Gisbergen, Trackhouse Racing
No one benefited more from the "win and in" approach than Shane van Gisbergen in 2025, when he won five of the six road or street course races. He was only 25th in regular season points, largely due to his 21.0 average finish and lack of success on ovals.
With that said, his road course prowess would have been enough to catapult him ahead of Ty Gibbs for the 16th spot if the Chase format was in place in 2025, thanks to the 15 bonus points per win it awards. It speaks to the importance that wins still carry.
With four road and street courses on the 2026 regular season schedule and the 55 points, not just 40, that race winners now receive, there is certainly a path for van Gisbergen to qualify for the 16-driver Chase field.
However, with the second-fewest stage points (76) among playoff drivers in 2025 and only one top 10 finish on an oval (Kansas Speedway), van Gisbergen will need to demonstrate some more consistency on ovals to feel comfortable about getting a spot in the Chase.
Considering his success on road and street courses last season, it would be surprising if he did not pick up where he left off and make the Chase field. With that said, if he leaves a win or two on the table and does not improve significantly on ovals, it will be far more challenging for him to qualify, especially since he only would have gotten in by two points over Gibbs, even with four regular season wins, in 2025.
Austin Dillon, Richard Childress Racing
There is something about Austin Dillon and Richmond Raceway that really seems to click, with the Richard Childress Racing driver picking up his second consecutive win there in August. Aside from that, however, he only had five top 10 finishes the entire season and led 12 total laps in the other 35 races.
If the Chase format was in place in 2025, Dillon would have finished 26th in points and been nowhere near title contention, once again highlighting the importance of the "win and in". Of all the drivers who made the playoffs, Dillon scored the fewest stage points of anybody (31). Even worse, 13 drivers who failed to make the playoffs altogether had more stage points than he did.
There are certain tracks where Dillon has excelled at in his Cup Series career, but with only one stretch of consecutive top 10 finishes all season, he'll need to do much more to get into the Chase field. In his previous most recent postseason appearance 2022, he had a win, a career-high five top five finishes, and 11 top 10 finishes, and he still wouldn't have been a playoff driver without that victory in the regular season finale.
Josh Berry, Wood Brothers Racing
To Josh Berry's credit, his first round playoff performance was marred by three straight finishes outside the top 30, so his overall numbers do not entirely highlight how impressive he was at times during his sophomore campaign.
He picked up his first career Cup Series win in the March race at Las Vegas Motor Speedway and went toe-to-toe with Ryan Blaney in the playoff race at New Hampshire Motor Speedway before settling for second.
With that said, he had nine DNFs and three top five finishes all season. Much like Dillon, his overall placement in the standings (24th) under the current Chase format would not have been great. Berry has proven to be an excellent short track racer and has shown flashes on superspeedways as well, but if he cannot run all the laps and put the consistent finishes together, he, too, could be in for a challenging 2026 season.