5 big winners – and 5 big losers – from 2025 Indy 500 qualifying

Who is in a good spot after Saturday's Indy 500 qualifying session, and who is struggling?
Robert Shwartzman, Prema Racing, Indy 500, IndyCar
Robert Shwartzman, Prema Racing, Indy 500, IndyCar | Randy Ballinger/For IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The range of emotions was wide on Saturday at Indianapolis Motor Speedway during the nearly seven-hour first round of qualifying for the 109th running of the Indy 500.

There are 18 drivers locked into their starting positions for next Sunday's 200-lap race around the four-turn, 2.5-mile (4.023-kilometer) Speedway, Indiana oval, while 16 others must run again on Sunday.

The top 12 drivers from Saturday are set compete for the pole position, a number that is set to be reduced to six for the Firestone Fast Six shootout for pole, and four are set to attempt to get into the race, with one ultimately ending up on the outside looking in.

Who leaves Saturday feeling good, and who doesn't?

5 big winners – and 5 big losers – from Indy 500 qualifying

Big winner No. 1 - Graham Rahal

I haven't seen Graham Rahal this thrilled since Ohio State last beat Michigan. For the first time since 2021 (there was no Bump Day in 2022), Rahal is not a part of the Bump Day festivities, and we can no longer refer to it as the United Rentals Rahal Invitational. He is the happiest 30th place qualifier of all-time.

Big loser No. 1 - Race control

I'm not saying Marco Andretti would have beaten Graham Rahal, but race control's decision to let Felix Rosenqvist run around a mile and a half slower than he had already run was baffling. This decision cost Andretti another attempt after having come up just 0.004 miles per hour shy of Rahal on his previous run. The inconsistency always seems to be a story, and it needs to stop.

Big winner No. 2 - Robert Shwartzman

The top five drivers in qualifying were the top five drivers in my Indy 500 power rankings. Sixth fastest? The guy I ranked 33rd and had as a legitimate candidate to be bumped. Robert Shwartzman's first ever Indy 500 qualifying attempt (and first ever IndyCar oval qualifying attempt) was arguably the most impressive run of the day, and after Prema Racing's sketchy week in practice, it was particularly surprising.

Big loser No. 2 - Ed Carpenter Racing

Not since 2012 have Ed Carpenter Racing failed to place a car on the front three rows. They won't have a car on the front four rows in 2025. It's almost like letting go of Rinus VeeKay, who is Bump Day-bound with Dale Coyne Racing after five straight top seven qualifying efforts with Ed Carpenter Racing, was a mistake.

Big winner No. 3 - Late qualifiers

The qualifying draw is important, given the ever-changing track conditions, but look at who the three guys are who ran four-lap averages in excess of 233 miles per hour: Chip Ganassi Racing's Alex Palou and Team Penske teammates Scott McLaughlin and Josef Newgarden. None of those three drivers drew inside the top 24, but it didn't matter. The draw is not the be-all and end-all.

Big loser No. 3 - Jacob Abel

Bump Day is merely a formality to confirm that Jacob Abel won't be participating in the Indy 500. Of course, you never know when the Speedway will throw a curveball into the mix, but Abel was not remotely close to anybody on Saturday. But again, great marketing from everybody involved to get Miller High Life a crazy amount of TV time on Sunday.

Big winner No. 4 - Marcus Ericsson

Marcus Ericsson needed a strong run on Saturday after a disastrous month of May in 2024, and he got that after drawing the No. 1 qualifying spot, advancing to the Top 12 for the first time since 2023. The next highest Andretti Global driver? Kyle Kirkwood in 25th. The best thing for Ericsson is probably the fact that Andretti Global have raced better than they've qualified at Indy in recent years, and the last two times he qualified in the Top 12, he led lap 199 of the race, winning once.

Big loser No. 4 - Colton Herta

The fact that Colton Herta was able to lock into the race after his massive crash was a big win in itself, but thinking back to 2022, he was never actually able to be competitive after his Carb Day crash. Sure, this one happened almost a week earlier, but there is not much reason for optimism with him set to start in 29th place at a venue where something always seems to go wrong.

Big winner No. 5 - Christian Lundgaard

After three years with Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing, Christian Lundgaard hasn't been in competitive machinery at Indy until now, and even with that in mind, he was still mired toward the top 30 cutoff after his first run with Arrow McLaren. Then he pulled off a top 12 qualifying effort, and he was able to dodge a bullet, no pun intended, as the gun went off as well, with Conor Daly falling just shy of bumping him out of the second round.

Big loser No. 5 - Rinus VeeKay

Getting back to the Ed Carpenter Racing point, Rinus VeeKay is in an even worse position after that unfortunate offseason breakup. He was never particularly close to getting into the top 30 in his first Indy 500 qualifying day with Dale Coyne Racing, and this is a driver whose five Indy 500 starts have come from fourth, third, third, second, and seventh on the grid. That's 19 total spots, and he will be adding no fewer than 31 to that tally in 2025 – assuming he does indeed qualify.

Other notable winners and losers

Obviously Marco Andretti can't be happy with how qualifying ended, and Marcus Armstrong, unlike Colton Herta, was unable to lock himself into the field after his own wreck. Meanwhile, Kyffin Simpson and Kyle Larson solidly locked themselves into the field after Fast Friday wrecks, and Takuma Sato comfortably made it into the Top 12 after his heavy crash in the open test.

Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing have finally dodged the last row of the grid entirely after three straight years of misery, and though he doesn't get talked about as much as Robert Shwartzman, how about David Malukas? He was seventh fastest in his first Indy 500 qualifying attempt with A.J. Foyt Enterprises and remains a legitimate dark horse candidate to win the race.

Full qualifying results can be found here.

Indy 500 qualifying is scheduled to continue on Sunday, May 18, with live coverage set to begin at 4:00 p.m. ET on Fox. Start a free trial of FuboTV now and don't miss any of the remaining three qualifying sessions!