Sunday's Toyota/Save Mart 350 at Sonoma Raceway marked the halfway point of the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series season. It's taken some unexpected turns along the way, and not all of them have been good ones.
We've already discussed the five biggest positive surprises of 2026 thus far. Now, it's time to talk about the biggest disappointments.
This list pertains strictly to on-track developments, so the year's most disheartening news of all, that being the tragic passing of Kyle Busch, will not be mentioned.
5. Next Gen parity has collapsed as Toyota strangleholds the field
The Cup Series' Next Gen car has seen marked improvement this season in its ability to make passes, but that's a double-edged sword. The good news: races have become less track position dependent. The bad news: nothing is stopping the same old teams from finding a way to the front, every week.
Specifically, the Joe Gibbs Racing and 23XI Racing Toyotas have a visible leg up on the field and have been next to unbeatable at high-speed intermediate tracks.
They've combined to win 11 of 18 races, with Tyler Reddick and Denny Hamlin responsible for nine of those. Of the seven they haven't won, two were road course races, one was a superspeedway race, and another was rain-shortened. Otherwise, only Chase Elliott (twice) and Ryan Blaney have been able to break through.
4. The Josh Berry Linsanity run was fun while it lasted
Remember at the start of 2025, when it looked like the Wood Brothers had found their answer in Josh Berry? The long-time short track racer won at Las Vegas Motor Speedway and recorded a string of impressive runs to become one of the surprises of the early part of the year, though he ultimately finished last in the standings out of the 16 playoff drivers.
In 2026, Berry has been a disaster. He's 31st in points and it has already been confirmed that Jesse Love will replace him in the No. 21 car next season. He came with minimal upside all along as a 33-year-old rookie in 2024, and with options slim for 2027, his Cup career may be short-lived.
3. Noah Gragson is running out of chances (or at least he should be)
Noah Gragson drove for three different teams during his first three intended full-time Cup Series seasons. In 2026, he finally found some stability with Front Row Motorsports, hoping to build on a 2025 campaign that saw some strong showings here and there.
He has not. Gragson's numbers are on pace to be nearly identical from a season ago, though he is four positions higher in the standings... in 30th. The excuses are running out, as Zane Smith and even Todd Gilliland routinely outperform him in the same equipment. Despite that, he has been rumored as a leading candidate for Richard Childress Racing's No. 33 car next year. Maybe his fourth team in five seasons will finally give him the opportunity he needs.
2. No more win-and-in, no more Even Year Joey Logano
The playoffs can't save Joey Logano anymore. With the win-and-in format gone, the Team Penske driver is headed downstream without a paddle... and even under the old system, he still wouldn't be in the Chase this year. He sits 20th in points through 18 races, with only two top five finishes and three more top 10s.
Logano's performance has been trending downward for some time, albeit masked by his 2024 devil magic-induced championship run. Now, there's no more hiding it. The No. 22 team has serious issues to discuss, and the driver has to be considered part of the equation.
1. Calling Trackhouse the new Chip Ganassi Racing is an insult to Ganassi
Trackhouse Racing has built one of the most exciting driver lineups in NASCAR. They have an every-week threat in Ross Chastain. They have the greatest road course racer of all-time in Shane van Gisbergen. Now, they have the most promising prospect of the decade in Connor Zilisch.
And they are 22nd, 14th, and 34th in points.
If not for van Gisbergen's two road course wins, in which even his equipment couldn't slow him down, they'd likely all be outside the top 20. This is a team that burst onto the scene four years ago and was taking it to Joe Gibbs Racing and Hendrick Motorsports. They were supposed to only get better, and instead, they're now mediocre at best.
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