We are just five races into the 26-race 2026 NASCAR Cup Series regular season, but after a superspeedway race, a pseudo-superspeedway race, a road course race, and races on both a one-mile and a 1.5-mile oval, who the contenders are (and aren't) have started to become clear.
With the new "Chase" playoff format having been introduced ahead of the 2026 season, only the drivers who finish the regular season in the top 16 in the point standings are eligible for the playoffs. There is no more "win and in".
Naturally, had this format been implemented in previous years, the postseason fields would have looked quite a bit different, given how many times drivers from outside the top 16 in the standings relied on race victories to lock themselves in.
This year, they can no longer do that, and although it's still early, it's becoming relatively clear which playoff drivers from a year ago aren't going to be able to get back to the postseason this September.
Alex Bowman, Hendrick Motorsports
This one is fairly obvious, because nobody knows if or when Alex Bowman will return to the Cup Series, having now missed two full races (and part of a third) with vertigo. Even before his absence, he was 36th (last) in the point standings among full-time drivers, and he's already 94 points below the playoff cut line.
Connor Zilisch, Trackhouse Racing
Connor Zilisch is a Cup Series rookie, so we're going to cheat slightly here because he actually made the O'Reilly Auto Parts Series playoffs a year ago.
Zilisch is last in the standings among the 35 drivers who have run every race, and it's been a humbling dose of reality for the fans who clung to the "next Jeff Gordon" narrative and expected him to dominate from the get-go. The fact is that, like almost everybody to ever reach this level, Zilisch needs time, and he's nowhere close to being a contender just yet.
Josh Berry, Wood Brothers Racing
Josh Berry reached the playoffs in his first season with Wood Brothers Racing thanks to his victory at Las Vegas Motor Speedway a year ago, as he wasn't particularly close to the top 16 in points. This year, he finished the same race in 31st, and he's even worse (32nd) in the point standings with only a single top 25 finish.
Austin Cindric, Team Penske
Austin Cindric, meanwhile, just scored his first top 25 finish of the year with a 19th place effort at Las Vegas and finds himself 30th in the standings. He has not exactly done much to quiet the narrative that he could be on the hot seat, and missing the playoffs for the second time in five seasons with Team Penske certainly would not help.
Austin Dillon, Richard Childress Racing
There is perhaps no better poster child for "win and in" than Austin Dillon. Dillon hasn't gotten into the playoffs without a victory since 2016, yet he's had six winning seasons since then. Perhaps the best way to illustrate why that is happens to be the fact that, since winning at Richmond Raceway in August, he has gone 16 straight races without a top 10 finish.
Others to watch
Trackhouse Racing's Shane van Gisbergen is currently tied for the final playoff spot, even after a stronger start to the season than most would have anticipated, and two of the tracks where he won in 2025 are no longer on the regular season schedule.
Teammate Ross Chastain has also had a rough start to the season and finds himself 23 points, which doesn't exactly bode well given the overall mediocre performance of the No. 1 team over the past few years.
Joe Gibbs Racing's Chase Briscoe is 41 points out, but that's with three performance that netted him only a single point. It's hard to imagine that he and the No. 19 team won't move up quickly.
The Goodyear 400 is set to be shown live on Fox Sports 1 from Darlington Raceway starting at 3:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, March 22. Begin a free trial of FuboTV now and don't miss it!