As superspeedway racing tends to do, Sunday's 2026 NASCAR Cup Series season-opening Daytona 500 at Daytona International Speedway produced a bit of a mixed-up finishing order, with several drivers who don't generally run well scoring respectable finishes and other traditional championship contenders left mired well down the leaderboard.
Points have already been awarded five times this year, even with only one of 26 regular season races on the 2026 schedule in the books. They were awarded after both of the America 250 Florida Duel qualifying races on Thursday, as well as after the first and second stage of the Daytona 500. Of course, the most points were awarded after the Daytona 500 itself.
Starting this year, as a part of NASCAR's offseason decision to abolish the "win and in" knockout playoff format, the 16 postseason qualifiers are set to be the drivers who finish the regular season in the top 16 in the point standings.
No longer can a driver from 30th (or worse, quite frankly) in the standings win his way into the playoffs with a single victory while struggling to score top 20 or top 25 finishes anywhere else.
There are a number of drivers in the top 16 in the standings after the Daytona 500 whom we're not accustomed to seeing contend for playoff spots.
Of course, it goes without saying that it's only been one race, but for that reason, and with points and points alone set to determine the entire 16-driver "Chase" playoff field, let's have a look at five drivers we fully expect to drop out – and stay out – at some point over the next 25 race weekends.
Noah Gragson, Front Row Motorsports
This one is the easy one, because Noah Gragson is only one point to the good as things stand right now anyway, occupying the 16th and final spot above the cut line.
His career-high finish in the point standings is 24th with Stewart-Haas Racing in 2024, and he finished 34th in his first season with Front Row Motorsports a year ago. His 11th place finish in the Daytona 500 was solid, but it's not something we'd expect from the No. 4 team on a weekly basis.
Zane Smith, Front Row Motorsports
Sticking with the Front Row Motorsports theme, we have their top finisher from Sunday's race and a driver who was in contention to win until the final lap in Zane Smith.
Smith got his first career stage win and is fourth in points, 15 points above the cut line, after a sixth place finish, but after finishes of 30th and 28th in the standings in his first two seasons, I'm not buying him as a playoff contender after a single solid superspeedway result.
Riley Herbst, 23XI Racing
Brad Keselowski's criticism aside, justified or not, give credit to Riley Herbst for being in the mix to win the Daytona 500 coming to the checkered flag as a +9000 longshot, especially after a season in which he didn't finish a single race higher than 13th.
But that's exactly why we have no reason to believe he'll stay in his 11th place tie in points. Expect him to plummet sooner rather than later after finishing 35th of 36th in the standings, higher than only Cody Ware, a year ago.
Daniel Suarez, Spire Motorsports
The other driver in that 11th place tie, nine points above the cutoff, is Daniel Suarez, who has never qualified for the playoffs on points in his career, although he would have done so even without his Sonoma Raceway victory back in 2022.
He also got into the postseason with Trackhouse Racing in 2024, but that only happened because of his superspeedway win at Atlanta Motor Speedway, and he was dropped by the team after finishing 29th a year ago, his worst season since competing for the now defunct Gaunt Brothers Racing in 2020. I just can't envision a career resurgence in year number 10.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Hyak Motorsports
And finally, one driver who has only ever actually qualified for the playoffs thanks to his victories is Ricky Stenhouse Jr., who did so with two victories in 2017 and his Daytona 500 victory in 2023.
Always a threat to win on superspeedways, Stenhouse has never been a consistent force elsewhere. His runner-up finish on Sunday has him sitting fifth in points, 13 points above the cut line, but his average points finish in his 11 non-playoff seasons is 23.6 for a reason.
Two others two watch
Despite his last-lap crash from the lead, which left him in 18th place, Spire Motorsports' Carson Hocevar made out quite well at Daytona points-wise, thanks to his runner-up Duel finish and fourth place finish in the first Daytona 500 stage.
He's 10 points above the cutoff in a ninth place tie, and there has been a lot of hype surrounding this high-upside driver heading into the year, but even if you take away some of the late-race misfortune he has experienced, he'll need to be much more consistent in 2026 after points finishes of 21st and 23rd in 2024 and 2025.
Then there is Wood Brothers Racing's Josh Berry, who made the playoffs a year ago, but would not have done so under the new format, even with his win at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. Even with a ninth place finish on Sunday, he's only 13th in points, seven points above the cutoff.
Tune in to Fox at 3:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, February 22 for the live broadcast of the Autotrader 400 from EchoPark Speedway (formerly Atlanta Motor Speedway) for NASCAR's second superspeedway race in a row to start the 2026 Cup Series season. Start a free trial of FuboTV now and don't miss it!