The entry list is officially set for the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series season-opening Daytona 500 at Daytona International Speedway, and it features 45 cars, including eight non-chartered (open) cars that are set to battle for the four open spots in the 41-car field.
It means that four drivers will ultimately fail to qualify for the 68th annual edition of the 200-lap race around the four-turn, 2.5-mile (4.023-kilometer) high-banked Daytona Beach, Florida oval.
Two spots are set to be awarded based on single-car qualifying speed, while the other two are set to be awarded based on the results of the two America 250 Florida Duel races, following a minor yet impactful offseason rule change.
Which drivers are most likely to be left on the outside looking in? Here are our top five, along with why we haven't include the other three.
5. Chandler Smith, Front Row Motorsports
Since he's our No. 5, we technically do think Chandler Smith will qualify for the race. He is 0-for-2 in Daytona 500 qualifying attempts, but those attempts came with Kaulig Racing and Garage 66.
Front Row Motorsports have a strong superspeedway program among their full-time cars, and they've historically done well when adding an open entry. Even if Smith doesn't get in on speed, he should have a good shot if he finds himself with one of his teammates in his 60-lap Duel race.
4. Anthony Alfredo, Beard Motorsports
It would not surprise me at all to see Anthony Alfredo get into the race on speed, given the speed that Beard Motorsports are known to bring, and this is a team that has never missed the race two years in a row since they started competing in 2017.
Alfredo missed it a year ago after getting in back in 2024, but when he got in two years ago, he needed to do it on speed.
3. Casey Mears, Garage 66
Given the fact that they've whiffed on their past seven Daytona 500 qualifying attempts dating back to 2020, Garage 66 is the easy pick for No. 1 here. Casey Mears, however, is why I refuse to give up the faith that this could finally be the year they end their string of misery.
Mears returned to the Cup Series in 2025 for the first time since 2016 (aside from the 2019 Daytona 500) and showed well for the team, specifically in the select superspeedway events he ran. More than likely, he's going to need to race his way in via the Duel, and he can certainly get the job done.
2. J.J. Yeley, NY Racing Team
J.J. Yeley hasn't made it into the Daytona 500 since 2015 and is 0-for-4 in qualifying attempts since then, but I can't put him at No. 1 here.
NY Racing Team haven't qualified for the Daytona 500 since the late Greg Biffle got them into the race four years ago, so Yeley getting the No. 44 Chevrolet back into the race this year, of all years, would be quite the story.
1. B.J. McLeod, Live Fast Motorsports
It was tough to put B.J. McLeod at No. 1 here, because he is at his best on superspeedways, but Live Fast Motorsports have struggled at Daytona since selling their charter after the 2023 season, thus relinquishing their guaranteed Daytona 500 starting spot.
McLeod is another driver who probably has no chance of getting in on speed and will need to race his way in via the Duel, and that was something he was unable to do in both 2024 and 2025. I don't think the third time is the charm.
The other 3...
I nearly included Justin Allgaier at No. 4 or No. 5, simply because of the fact that if JR Motorsports can't lock in on speed, I'm not sure how much faith I have in them to lock in via the Duel again, like they did year ago. I do think Allgaier will find a way into the race somehow after an impressive ninth place finish a year ago.
Corey Heim is an interesting one, because I think we all took for granted that he'd be in the Chicago Street Race back in July, before he shockingly failed to qualify. Even if he doesn't get in on speed, I simply can't see the same thing happening here, especially if he ends up in a Duel with some of his Toyota teammates (okay, minus Ty Gibbs).
Then there is Corey LaJoie. Quite frankly, LaJoie would need something disastrous to happen to keep him out of the race, when you consider his own superspeedway history, the superspeedway speed of his RFK Racing team, and the fact that he could have as many as three teammates helping him out on the Duel. He qualified 12th a year ago in an open car for Rick Ware Racing. He should be fine.
Note that Jimmie Johnson is not included on this list, as the No. 84 Legacy Motor Club Toyota is locked into the race via the Open Exemption Provisional. It's why the field has been expanded from 40 to 41 cars, as the No. 84 car is effectively being treated like a 37th chartered entry.
Johnson is still able to qualify normally and set his starting position via his Duel race; he isn't necessarily locked into the 41st starting position.
Fox Sports 1 is set to air qualifying live from Daytona International Speedway starting at 8:00 p.m. ET on Wednesday night, and it is set to air the two America 250 Florida Duel races live beginning at 7:00 p.m. ET on Thursday night. Fox is then set to air the Daytona 500 itself live beginning at 2:00 p.m. ET on Sunday afternoon. Begin a free trial of FuboTV and catch all of the action!