Over the past three races, Kyle Larson has gone from owning a 49-point lead in the NASCAR Cup Series championship standings, to owning just a five-point lead, with five other drivers within 56 points of that lead, to owning a massive 73-point lead with just two races remaining on the 2026 calendar.
And with just 76 points up for grabs in each race, Larson could very well be crowned champion for the third time overall and the second time in 12 months this week at Martinsville Speedway, even with a race left to run at Homestead-Miami Speedway afterward.
All 16 drivers who entered the playoffs with a chance to win the championship were still mathematically eligible to do so heading into this past Sunday's race at Talladega Superspeedway. But Larson's third win of the postseason eliminated nine of them, leaving just six drivers (other than himself) within 152 points of the lead.
6 NASCAR Cup drivers facing elimination at Martinsville
All six are within 126 points, so back-to-back wins to conclude the season, coupled with some Larson misfortune, could very well be enough to pull off the upset. It's certainly not over, and we've seen some pretty sizable gaps erased in a very short amount of time both during the regular season and during the playoffs so far in year number one of this new championship format.
But all six of them could also be eliminated in Sunday's 500-lap race around the four-turn, 0.526-mile (0.847-kilometer) Ridgeway, Virginia oval.
Joe Gibbs Racing's Denny Hamlin, the regular season champion whose lead in full-season points has actually grown from 89 to 98 during the first eight races of the playoffs, is second in the standings, 73 points behind Larson as he continues to seek his first win since mid-June.
The other five are Joe Gibbs Racing teammates Christopher Bell (-74) and Chase Briscoe (-79), Team Penske teammates Joey Logano (-100) and Ryan Blaney (-107), and 23XI Racing's Tyler Reddick (-126).
Before Talladega, those five drivers were just five, 24, 44, 40, and 56 points behind Larson, respectively. Hamlin was just 31 back.
Larson is now the prohibitive favorite to win the 2026 championship at DraftKings Sportsbook, listed at -1800. Hamlin is the only other driver listed with odds shorter than +2000, and he's at +1100. Full odds are always subject to change.
NBC's live coverage of the Xfinity 500 is set to begin at 2:00 p.m. ET this Sunday, November 1. Begin a free trial of FuboTV now and don't miss any of the action from Martinsville Speedway in the race that might very well decide the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series championship!
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