The past six years, Phoenix Raceway has eliminated three of the four Championship 4 drivers and seen a NASCAR Cup Series champion crowned. While Phoenix is no longer the host of the championship finale under the new Chase postseason format, it will still likely be the site of multiple eliminations this Sunday, even with no more knockout-style setup in place.
There are four races remaining on the 10-race 2026 Chase schedule, meaning that there are 304 points still up for grabs for each driver. After this past Sunday's 312-lap Freeway Insurance 500 around the four-turn, 1.022-mile (1.645-kilometer) oval in Avondale, Arizona, there will be just 228.
With 76 points being the maximum number any driver can score in each race (55 for the win, 10 for the stage one win, 10 for the stage two win, one for running the race's fastest lap), any driver who is more than 152 points behind Hendrick Motorsports' Kyle Larson in the standings after this past Sunday's race at Charlotte Motor Speedway runs the risk of falling more than 228 points behind at Phoenix and thus being eliminated with three races remaining.
Those drivers include Joe Gibbs Racing's Ty Gibbs (-156), Spire Motorsports' Carson Hocevar (-180), 23XI Racing's Bubba Wallace (-185), Hendrick Motorsports teammates Chase Elliott (-185) and William Byron (-208), Spire Motorsports' Daniel Suarez (-215), and RFK Racing teammates Chris Buescher (-216) and Ryan Preece (-227).
Notably, none of them actually have to gain ground on Larson to remain within that threshold, so if Larson has a bad race or a DNF, it's entirely possible that all 16 playoff drivers will still have a shot at the championship heading into Talladega Superspeedway the following weekend.
But it's extremely unlikely, and let's be honest; none of these eight drivers has a realistic path to the 2026 championship at this point anyway.
In fact, even a couple of drivers who cannot mathematically be eliminated this weekend have very, very slim chances of being in title contention for much longer.
There are just five drivers within 100 points of Larson, and just three of them are within that crucial 76-point threshold (which is really a 75-point threshold if you assume nobody misses any races, as all drivers who compete are guaranteed to score at least one point).
How many of the 16 playoff drivers will still be in title contention after Sunday's Freeway Insurance 500? Live coverage from Phoenix Raceway is set to be provided by USA Network beginning at 3:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, October 18.
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