Every NASCAR Cup Series season, it seems like it's Denny Hamlin's year, until it isn't. Hamlin once again emerged as one of the top favorites to win the championship this season, but despite possessing a series-high five wins heading into the round of 12, questions started being asked yet again.
In each of the three round of 12 races, his judgment was questioned, and fans believed they were seeing more of the same Denny Hamlin we've seen for the past two decades: a driver incapable of actually sealing the deal and winning that elusive first title.
At New Hampshire Motor Speedway, frustration got to him in a mid-pack battle with teammate Ty Gibbs, whom he spun out and wrecked to end his race. Hamlin still only finished 12th.
At Kansas Speedway, despite being relatively safe to get to the round of 8 on points, he ran Bubba Wallace, who competes for the very 23XI Racing team Hamlin co-owns with Michael Jordan, up the track on the final lap when battling for the lead.
It cost Wallace a round of 8 spot, saved Joey Logano's season, and handed a completely unexpected win to Chase Elliott and Hendrick Motorsports.
Then at the Charlotte Motor Speedway Roval, he again saved Logano's season, something he later admitted he would not have done had he known the points situation, by passing Trackhouse Racing's Ross Chastain on the final lap of the race.
Chastain proceeded to send it into the No. 11 Toyota in a last-gasp effort to advance, but all he did was spin out both drivers and solidify Logano's spot in the next round.
Logano is probably the last driver on earth who anybody wants to be extending lifeline after lifeline to in the postseason, considering how he's won his three championships, and the past few weeks have almost felt like a microcosm of Logano's career compared to Hamlin's.
Denny Hamlin disproves the narrative, clinches Championship 4 spot
There is obviously no guarantee that Hamlin will win the 2025 championship, but all that talk about him supposedly making poor decisions, misjudging his opportunities, and even being distracted with his ongoing legal battle against NASCAR was shut down at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.
An emotional Hamlin, while also dealing with the stresses of watching his father's health in decline, punched his first ticket to the Championship 4 since 2021 by winning the round of 8 opener.
Despite all the criticism, Hamlin, once again the outright championship favorite at FanDuel Sportsbook, leads the series in victories with six, despite being the only full-time driver to miss a race this year, and he now has two extra weeks to prepare for the Championship 4 at Phoenix Raceway, something that has never before been true in his past championship attempts.
In three of the four and four of the seven most recent seasons, the winner of the round of 8 opener has gone on to win the championship.
Hamlin is a two-time winner at Phoenix, and he came up clutch there most recently in 2019, when the track hosted the round of 8 finale. He won his way into the Championship 4 before his title bid ultimately went up in smoke following the No. 11 team's still-questioned decision to apply a large piece of tape on the grill at Homestead-Miami Speedway the following weekend.
Maybe it's really not Hamlin's year (again). But regardless of whether it is or it isn't, the idea that he threw away his chance with one of the most all-around chaotic performances the round of 12 has ever seen never held much water, and Sunday's race proved it.
Hamlin is set to enter this coming Sunday afternoon's YellaWood 500 at Talladega Superspeedway as the only driver locked into the Championship 4, while seven others are set to battle for the three remaining spots. NBC is set to provide live coverage starting at 2:00 p.m. ET, so begin a free trial of FuboTV today and be sure to catch all of the action!