Joe Gibbs Racing's Denny Hamlin entered the 10-race Chase postseason as the clear favorite to win the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series championship, having been the driver to beat throughout much of the 26-race regular season.
He locked up the regular season championship even before the regular season finale at Daytona International Speedway, and even though he hadn't won a race in two and a half months at that point, he extended his championship lead throughout that second-half stretch of the regular season.
After several years of "almost", to go along with the undesirable title of "winningest non-champion of all-time", it finally felt like 2026 was the year of the No. 11 Toyota.
Then came the postseason, and suddenly Hamlin is staring at a 70-point deficit with just one race remaining on the schedule.
Kyle Larson clinching the championship over Hamlin (-70) and Hamlin's teammate Christopher Bell (-67) with just 76 points still up for grabs in this coming Sunday's season finale at Homestead-Miami Speedway feels like a mere formality.
There's little debating the legitimacy of Larson's championship run, and the accusations that he would not be a "deserving" champion simply because he had a lackluster regular season are nothing more than sour grapes from fans who only initially praised the new format because they thought their favorite drivers would benefit.
Let's not forget that many NASCAR fans specifically wanted this format to replace the old "win and in" setup, and the calls for a change were arguably highest because of the manner in which Larson won the 2025 championship over Hamlin, even though Larson actually did lead the series in full-season points.
But Hamlin's slide in the postseason hasn't been anything close to the "choke" that we're supposed to believe it is.
Larson has been on another level in the postseason, and he absolutely took advantage of the post-regular season points reset, beginning the playoffs just 55 points behind Hamlin after wrapping up the regular season 303 behind. Postseason legitimacy debate aside, there's no denying any of that.
Hamlin simply hasn't been as good.
Larson leads all drivers with eight top 10 finishes in nine postseason races; Hamlin is quietly tied for second with six. While Hamlin is winless in the postseason, unlike the other five drivers in the top six in the standings, he was winless over the final two and a half months of the regular season too. But he was simply able to build up a huge lead with his consistency and strong results, and he was praised for it.
That simply hasn't been possible in the playoffs, with Larson doing what he's doing, and while there have undoubtedly been some self-inflicted wounds, those wounds are the difference between him being 70 points behind and being a handful of points closer. He'd still be behind, and again, you have to tip your cap to Larson for that.
But for as much as fans like to talk about the full-season standings and how Hamlin would have already clinched the championship under a full-season points format, it's not the fact that Hamlin leads the standings; it's the fact that he has actually continued to add to his lead throughout the entire postseason.
It feels surprising, because of just how much has been made of his shortcomings. But it's true.
He ended the regular season 89 points ahead of Team Penske's Ryan Blaney in second. Now he's 127 ahead, and Blaney is still second.
Tyler Reddick was third in the regular season, 133 points behind Hamlin. Even with his recent win at Phoenix Raceway, he'd have since fallen to 153 points behind, despite still being third.
Ty Gibbs was fourth in the regular season, 135 points behind Hamlin. He would now be 185 points behind.
Larson isn't the only driver who has outscored Hamlin in the postseason; three others have as well. But those other three are all in the same vicinity as Hamlin, with Larson having scored at least 72 more points than all of them.
Again, the story of this postseason is far more about Larson's success than it is about Hamlin's struggles, even though the low-hanging fruit of Hamlin's career has always been to label him a "choker".
Here are the full-season points of each of the 16 playoff drivers.
NASCAR Cup Series full-season points
Rank | Driver | Points | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
1 | Denny Hamlin, No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota | 1326 | 0 |
2 | Ryan Blaney, No. 12 Team Penske Ford | 1199 | -127 |
3 | Tyler Reddick, No. 45 23XI Racing Toyota | 1173 | -153 |
4 | Kyle Larson, No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet | 1148 | -178 |
5 | Ty Gibbs, No. 54 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota | 1141 | -185 |
6 | Christopher Bell, No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota | 1110 | -216 |
7 | Chase Briscoe, No. 19 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota | 1091 | -235 |
8 | Joey Logano, No. 22 Team Penske Ford | 1040 | -286 |
9 | William Byron, No. 24 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet | 954 | -372 |
10 | Chase Elliott, No. 9 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet | 951 | -375 |
11 | Carson Hocevar, No. 77 Spire Motorsports Chevrolet | 912 | -414 |
12 | Bubba Wallace, No. 23 23XI Racing Toyota | 898 | -428 |
13 | Austin Cindric, No. 2 Team Penske Ford | 889 | -437 |
14 | Daniel Suarez, No. 7 Spire Motorsports Chevrolet | 861 | -465 |
15 | Chris Buescher, No. 17 RFK Racing Ford | 846 | -480 |
16 | Ryan Preece, No. 60 RFK Racing Ford | 836 | -490 |
This is notably Hamlin's first time leading the series in full-season points in his 21-year career as a full-time driver.
Although the fact that he will probably come up short of that elusive first championship a Homestead-Miami Speedway this coming weekend will undoubtedly be a disappointment, the fact is that nobody would have batted an eye over his alleged playoff "collapse" had the post-regular season reset never happened.
It's all about perspective. And the reality is that Larson has simply outperformed him over a stretch that has mattered more than the stretch during which Hamlin was the clear guy to beat. It's really that simple.
Tune in to NBC this Sunday, November 8 at 3:00 p.m. ET for the live broadcast of the Straight Talk Wireless 400 from Homestead-Miami Speedway. Begin a free trial of FuboTV now and don't miss any of the action from the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series season finale!
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