Two drivers of non-chartered (open) cars successfully qualified for Sunday afternoon's NASCAR Cup Series season-opening Daytona 500 at Daytona International Speedway by being the fastest two drivers (among open cars) in Wednesday night's single-car qualifying session (full results here).
That leaves two spots still open in the field for Sunday's 200-lap race around the four-turn, 2.5-mile (4.023-kilometer) high-banked Daytona Beach, Florida oval, or potentially three if the driver who has been granted a "world-class driver" provisional, Trackhouse Racing's Helio Castroneves, fails to qualify.
Tricon Garage's Martin Truex Jr. and Legacy Motor Club's Jimmie Johnson both locked themselves into the "Great American Race" on speed, but both can technically still race their way into the Daytona 500 in their respective 60-lap Duel at Daytona races on Thursday night instead, as racing one's way in via a Duel heat takes precedence over locking in on qualifying speed.
Who can join Truex and Johnson in the Daytona 500?
Should Truex and Johnson race their way in on Thursday night, the next fastest drivers on speed from Wednesday night would officially be the drivers who lock in on speed. Those drivers are JR Motorsports' Justin Allgaier, who was the third fastest of the open entries on Wednesday, and Rick Ware Racing's Corey LaJoie, who was fourth.
The two drivers who officially lock in on speed start the race in 39th and 40th place, so there is incentive for Truex and Johnson to race their way in instead, since then their Daytona 500 starting spots would be determined by their Duel results. They could potentially start as high up as the second row.
Castroneves can't fall back on his qualifying speed to lock in, but he can still race his way in. However, if he fails to do so, then there would be five open entries in the race, not just four, and the field would feature 41 cars instead of 40, as a result of his provisional.
The first Duel race is set to feature Truex, Allgaier, Castroneves, Garage 66's Chandler Smith, and NY Racing Team's J.J. Yeley.
The second is set to feature Johnson, LaJoie, Beard Motorsports' Anthony Alfredo, and Live Fast Motorsports' B.J. McLeod.
Smith, Yeley, Alfredo, and McLeod absolutely must race their way in to qualify for the Daytona 500, meaning they must beat all of the other open cars in their respective Duel. If they don't, they will fail to qualify for the race. Castroneves is in the same spot, but again, he would still be added to the field in a 41st car if he fails to qualify.
Allgaier and LaJoie aren't facing that same scenario.
If Truex leads the open cars in the first Duel, Allgaier would lock in on qualifying speed. Even if neither Truex nor Allgaier tops the open cars in the first Duel, Allgaier would still be in if Johnson tops the open cars in the second Duel, since that would also allow him to fall back on his qualifying speed.
LaJoie faces a bit of a tougher challenge, but he can still get in without leading the open cars in the second Duel as well.
But if he doesn't top the open cars in his Duel, he absolutely needs Johnson to do so, and along with that, he needs either Truex or Allgaier to lead the way among open cars in the first Duel. This would allow him to fall back on his qualifying speed as well.
A more detailed article featuring the percentage likelihoods of each Duel outcome, specifically as it relates to who takes each of the four open spots, has also been published and is available on the Beyond the Flag home page.
Tune in to Fox Sports at 7:00 p.m. ET this evening for the live broadcast of the Duel at Daytona from Daytona International Speedway. Start a free trial of FuboTV now and don't miss it, and be sure not to miss Sunday's Daytona 500, live on Fox beginning at 2:30 p.m. ET!