Formula 1 driver linked to Red Bull could spell trouble for Sergio Perez

Sergio Perez has been the subject of countless rumors over the last year in a half, with speculation that he will be replaced by Red Bull despite having a contract that now ties him to the team through the 2026 Formula 1 season.

Ahead of the 2023 Miami Grand Prix, Perez and teammate Max Verstappen had each won two of the season's first four races, and with Perez on pole for the race, he was actually the betting favorite to take the lead of the world championship over a then two-time reigning world champion.

Verstappen went on to win 17 of 18 races to wrap up the season, and Perez hasn't stood atop the podium since. Verstappen has won a series-high seven times in 2024, while Perez has not finished higher than sixth place in any of the 14 most recent races.

Many of the rumors suggesting Perez would be replaced hinged on Red Bull having enough faith in Daniel Ricciardo to replace him. Ricciardo was brought back by the team as a third driver in 2023 after rough stints with Renault and McLaren following his initial Red Bull departure in 2018.

Ricciardo was called upon by Red Bull sister team AlphaTauri (now RB) to replace the struggling Nyck de Vries less than halfway into the 2023 season. There was even a rumor that Perez would announce his retirement during last year's Mexico City Grand Prix weekend. That obviously didn't happen, and both Perez and Ricciardo stayed put for 2024.

But amid a season of struggle in 2024, Ricciardo got similar treatment from RB and was replaced by Liam Lawson.

Lawson replaced Ricciardo in five races last year, when the 35-year-old Australian was out with a broken hand he suffered in a crash at Zandvoort. Teammate Yuki Tsunoda only beat him in one of those races, and many believed that Lawson had done more than enough to earn himself the second RB seat over Ricciardo in 2024.

That move did not come to fruition, and because they didn't give him a seat in 2024, Red Bull risked losing the 22-year-old New Zealander for 2025. Helmut Marko confirmed that Lawson would be in one of their four cars next year, effectively confirming a driver change of some kind.

That driver change came early, ahead of the recent United States Grand Prix at Circuit of the Americas (COTA).

Lawson still technically hasn't been confirmed by RB for the 2025 season, but one should wonder if that is for his own benefit. Perhaps the confirmation will be for the Red Bull seat, not the vacancy at the sister team.

Upon his Formula 1 return, he drove from 19th to ninth place at COTA, scoring two points and finishing five spots ahead of Tsunoda, who is scoreless in his six most recent race weekends. Perez only managed seventh in a car that also placed third with Verstappen, behind the Ferrari duo of Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz Jr.

Though the Red Bull has clearly not been the fastest car since April, the team are still third in the constructor standings, and Verstappen is still the world championship leader by 47 points over McLaren's Lando Norris. Even with no wins since June, he still has more than twice as many wins as any other driver through 20 races in 2024. Including sprints, he has won 11 of 24 races.

Perez's underperformance has cost the team valuable points, and they now have the ability to make the change and turn to another driver whom they can rely on.

Even amid the dozens of rumors that have emerged about the 34-year-old Mexican's future over the last 18 months, that has never been a true statement until now.

Ricciardo, who never truly found his stride after RB brought him back to the grid as de Vries' replacement last year, simply was no longer that driver. Lawson, even in a small sample size of races, has already demonstrated that he can be.

It's hard to imagine Perez would move down to RB, which have made clear that they want to revert to their former role of serving as somewhat of a development team for younger drivers in the Red Bull system.

Red Bull juniors Ayuma Iwasa, the former Formula 2 driver who currently competes in Japanese Super Formula, and Isack Hadjar, who sits in second in the Formula 2 standings, would be considered the frontrunners.

Or perhaps the team could turn to Franco Colapinto, who has done a stellar job since replacing Logan Sargeant at Williams, or even Formula 2 points leader Gabriel Bortoleto, provided neither one is called upon to replace Valtteri Bottas at Sauber/Audi.

This past weekend's Mexico City Grand Prix may have been a rough patch, but Lawson's emergence at COTA has demonstrated that he is indeed a true contender for the second Red Bull seat, and one could argue that we've finally made the transition from "silly season" to "silly-if-it-doesn't-happen season".

Perez may be a fan favorite, and he does bring significant sponsorship money to the team. But from a performance standpoint, if Lawson continues to perform the way he has performed in his seven Formula 1 starts thus far, there is no legitimate argument for keeping Perez alongside Verstappen beyond the conclusion of the 2024 season.