Editor's note: The contents of this article have been modified from their original state to reflect Kyle Busch's tragic passing.
According to The Weather Channel, there is more than a 50% chance of thunderstorms this coming Saturday afternoon and into the evening in Concord, North Carolina.
Qualifying for the Coca-Cola 600 NASCAR Cup Series race at Charlotte Motor Speedway is scheduled to take place on Saturday at 2:40 p.m. ET, following practice at 1:30 p.m. ET, so both sessions could be in jeopardy if the storms do hit around that time.
If qualifying for Sunday's 400-lap race around the four-turn, 1.5-mile (2.414-kilometer) oval cannot take place as planned, the qualifying metric would set the full 39-car starting lineup.
The qualifying metric is used on a weekly basis to determine the qualifying orders for oval races and the qualifying groups for road course races. Should it need to be used to set the starting lineup, the list would simply be inverted, rewarding those with the better metric scores.
The metric is based on each car's most recent finish in the most recent race and each car's rank in the owner standings. This particular variation of the formula, which can be found in more detail here, was introduced ahead of the 2025 season, after five seasons in which NASCAR used a more complicated four-variable metric.
Note that when it comes to the most recent finish, it is based on the most recent points race, meaning results from this past weekend's exhibition All-Star Race at Dover Motor Speedway are not factored into the equation.
Additionally, note that Austin Hill being tabbed to drive the No. 8 Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet, after Kyle Busch was hospitalized with a severe illness, did not impact the qualifying order, as the two variables involved the qualifying metric are based on the car/team, rather than the driver.
However, due to the announcement that followed shortly thereafter about Busch's tragic passing, the team have decided to use the No. 33, rather than the No. 8, for Hill's car. They have announced that the No. 8 is now set to be reserved for Brexton Busch, Kyle's 11-year-old son, should he manage to reach the Cup Series one day.
Here's a look at Sunday's would-be starting lineup if Saturday's qualifying session is rained out.
Coca-Cola 600 starting lineup if NASCAR qualifying is canceled
Order | Driver |
|---|---|
1 | Tyler Reddick, No. 45 23XI Racing Toyota |
2 | Ty Gibbs, No. 54 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota |
3 | Shane van Gisbergen, No. 97 Trackhouse Racing Chevrolet |
4 | Michael McDowell, No. 71 Spire Motorsports Chevrolet |
5 | Chase Briscoe, No. 19 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota |
6 | Ryan Blaney, No. 12 Team Penske Ford |
7 | Chris Buescher, No. 17 RFK Racing Ford |
8 | Austin Cindric, No. 2 Team Penske Ford |
9 | Austin Dillon, No. 3 Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet |
10 | A.J. Allmendinger, No. 16 Kaulig Racing Chevrolet |
11 | Denny Hamlin, No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota |
12 | Ryan Preece, No. 60 RFK Racing Ford |
13 | Austin Hill, No. 33 Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet |
14 | Daniel Suarez, No. 7 Spire Motorsports Chevrolet |
15 | John Hunter Nemechek, No. 42 Legacy Motor Club Toyota |
16 | Chase Elliott, No. 9 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet |
17 | Christopher Bell, No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota |
18 | Kyle Larson, No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet |
19 | Zane Smith, No. 38 Front Row Motorsports Ford |
20 | Todd Gilliland, No. 34 Front Row Motorsports Ford |
21 | Erik Jones, No. 43 Legacy Motor Club Toyota |
22 | Cole Custer, No. 41 Haas Factory Team Chevrolet |
23 | Carson Hocevar, No. 77 Spire Motorsports Chevrolet |
24 | Bubba Wallace, No. 23 23XI Racing Toyota |
25 | Connor Zilisch, No. 88 Trackhouse Racing Chevrolet |
26 | Brad Keselowski, No. 6 RFK Racing Ford |
27 | Ross Chastain, No. 1 Trackhouse Racing Chevrolet |
28 | Noah Gragson, No. 4 Front Row Motorsports Ford |
29 | Alex Bowman, No. 48 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet |
30 | Riley Herbst, No. 35 23XI Racing Toyota |
31 | William Byron, No. 24 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet |
32 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr., No. 47 Hyak Motorsports Chevrolet |
33 | Joey Logano, No. 22 Team Penske Ford |
34 | Josh Berry, No. 21 Wood Brothers Racing Ford |
35 | Ty Dillon, No. 10 Kaulig Racing Chevrolet |
36 | Josh Bilicki, No. 66 Garage 66 Ford |
37 | Katherine Legge, No. 78 Live Fast Motorsports Chevrolet |
38 | Cody Ware, No. 51 Rick Ware Racing Chevrolet |
39 | Corey Heim, No. 67 23XI Racing Toyota |
Sunday's forecast does not look extremely promising either, but there is less of a chance for evening thunderstorms then than there is for Saturday.
The Coca-Cola 600 is set to begin shortly after 6:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, May 24, with live coverage set to be provided by Amazon Prime Video from Charlotte Motor Speedway.
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