While the NASCAR Cup Series championship battle isn't mathematically over, everybody knows that it would take Christopher Bell or Denny Hamlin moving mountains on Sunday at Homestead-Miami Speedway to even have a chance to pass Kyle Larson at the top of the standings.
There are 76 points up for grabs in Sunday's 267-lap Straight Talk Wireless 400 season finale at the four-turn, 1.5-mile (2.414-kilometer) Homestead, Florida oval. Larson's lead over Bell is 67 points, and his lead over Hamlin is 70 points.
All drivers who start the race are guaranteed to score one point, and Larson has already clinched the tiebreaker over both Bell and Hamlin. They have combined to win one single playoff race, while Larson has already won three.
Kyle Larson can clinch the NASCAR Cup championship in Stage 1 at Homestead
Bell or Hamlin could technically win the race and run the fastest lap to earn 56 points, and Larson could technically finish 36th or lower to earn just one. But there's also a scenario where that happens and Larson has already clinched the title.
After the first stage, there will be just 66 points left up for grabs (10 by winning stage two, 55 by winning the race, one for the fastest lap), meaning that it would be possible to make up a 65-point deficit.
With Larson having already clinched the tiebreaker, it means that Bell and Hamlin must be within 64 points after stage one concludes to still be mathematically eligible to win the championship.
So Bell must outscore Larson by at least three points in stage one, and Hamlin must outscore him by at least six. Therefore, Bell would be eliminated if Larson finishes the first stage in the top three, and Hamlin would be eliminated if he finishes in the top six. Bell would also be eliminated if he doesn't finish in the top seven, and Hamlin would also be eliminated if he doesn't finish in the top four.
Even if the championship battle does carry on into stage two, it would become even more challenging for the Joe Gibbs Racing drivers to remain afloat. They'd need to be within 54 points of Larson heading into the final stage.
The fat lady has already started to sing.
Tune in to NBC at 3:00 p.m. ET this Sunday, November 8 for the live broadcast of the Straight Talk Wireless 400 from Homestead-Miami Speedway. Begin a free trial of FuboTV now and don't miss any of the action from the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series season finale!
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