For the first time in 12 races, Denny Hamlin is not the points leader of the NASCAR Cup Series standings. Kyle Larson is, by exactly one marker with seven races remaining in the 2026 season.
Of course, he has the Chase reset to thank for that. Under the season-long format, Larson is in sixth, 247 behind Hamlin while also trailing Ryan Blaney, Ty Gibbs, Tyler Reddick, and Christopher Bell. But that certainly doesn't mean he's had only the sixth-best season.
Championship purists are surely already crying bloody murder at the prospect of a driver with a 15.7 average finish winning the title. So let's make a case for why Larson wouldn't be such an abomination of a champion after all.
Kyle Larson is having one of the more underrated seasons of his career, even if the numbers don't show it
We've beaten the dead horse enough about how NASCAR's points system is a mediocrity machine that rewards "consistent" 12th place finishes over true elite performance but with greater variance. Larson has been one of the biggest victims of that this year, with nine finishes of 30th or worse, largely due to luck.
Now, let's look at what he's done in the races in which he has been able to achieve the result he's earned. Larson has 12 top five finishes, only two fewer than Hamlin. He has 16 top 10 finishes, only three behind the series leader.
His one win, at World Wide Technology Raceway two weeks ago, is a bit underwhelming, but it's not like he hasn't put himself in position. Larson has the third-most laps led of any driver this season with 883, trailing only Blaney and Hamlin.
Most impressively, he's done all of this driving for a Hendrick Motorsports team that's enduring its worst season in close to a decade.
Larson's 883 laps led account for 64.12% of Hendrick's total as a team. He also accounts for nearly half of Hendrick's 27 top five finishes. His two playoff teammates, Chase Elliott and William Byron, with 39 career wins between them, are currently sitting 12th and 13th in points.
Taking equipment and luck into the equation, Larson's season has arguably been as strong as anyone's. And that shouldn't be a surprise. There's a reason why, even as he went through a 51-race winless streak, a lot of people still aren't ready to crown anybody else as the best overall driver in the sport just yet.
When Larson has the right tools around him, the only one who can beat him is himself. Right now he's at a major disadvantage, and he's still in the driver's seat for the title.
The odds are still stacked against him, given the way the schedule lines up for Hamlin and Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Christopher Bell over the coming weeks. But if Larson holds on under a format that requires peak performance for 10 races instead of one, it'll be hard to say he hasn't earned it.
Some will still only look at his season-long points and average finish, which will improve if he maintains his recent results throughout the fall. But this is a season that requires more context.
Larson has carried his team on his back throughout the majority of 2026. If he can bring home the trophy, it will only add to the legacy of a driver who is already one of the all-time greats.
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