Alex Bowman entered the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series season without a contract to compete beyond its conclusion, and while there was plenty of speculation that he might be done after this year, given the fact that he's missed races in three of the past five seasons due to health issues and the fact that his performance has declined, he is set to go out at least partially on his own terms.
Bowman and Rick Hendrick's team agreed to a one-year contract extension to keep him behind the wheel of the No. 48 Chevrolet, and he plans to retire from full-time Cup Series competition altogether following the 2027 season.
Naturally, what was one of the top potential landing spots for free agents this coming offseason just become the single-most attractive landing spot to have a confirmed vacancy for 2028.
Who will replace Alex Bowman in 2028?
The two names you'd expect to emerge at the top of the list of candidates to replace Bowman indeed emerged. Corey Day is Hendrick's O'Reilly Auto Parts Series driver, and the extra year for Bowman in Cup would give him exactly what he needs to smooth out some of the rough edges before a Cup promotion, even though his talent and flashes of potential have been obvious his entire rookie season.
Then there's Connor Zilisch, whom many still believe is the most promising prospect since Jeff Gordon, despite a disastrous rookie season at the Cup level. He has emerged as the favorite to take over the No. 48 car a year and a half from now.
While he hasn't exactly been free from blame, it's no secret that Trackhouse Racing's struggles, and simply being in the wrong place at the wrong time, have played a significant role in the fact that Cody Ware is the only driver beneath him in the standings.
Even Corey Heim, who has run only eight of the 22 races, would be ahead of Zilisch if he were points eligible.
Day and Zilisch would both be high-risk, high-reward gambles for one of the top teams in the sport. They'd also both be expected to perform from day one, so if either one isn't the answer, then Hendrick Motorsports could end up needing to scout potential free agents once more, and much sooner than they'd like.
Should Hendrick take a safer route?
Yet one driver who undoubtedly would be an answer is being totally ignored, and that is Ross Chastain.
Sure, Chastain ruffled some (a lot of) feathers in the Hendrick (and Chevrolet) camps in the spring 2023 Darlington Raceway race, due to his contact with Kyle Larson. But by the time 2028 rolls around, that will have been five years ago.
Chastain has also been a victim of Trackhouse Racing's struggles in 2026, yet unlike with Zilisch, we all know what he's capable of when he has a car capable of running at the front. With all due respect to Zilisch, he has done literally nothing at the Cup level thus far to justify a move to Hendrick.
Would that actually change in 2027? It may not matter, but it should, because any and all excuses currently being made for him go completely out the window if he makes that move and still struggles.
As for Chastain, he emerged out of nowhere as a championship contender in 2022, finishing second behind Joey Logano in the standings, and he entered 2026 on a four-year winning streak, even though Trackhouse's performance decline has been somewhat steady dating back to 2023. His 2025 victory was an incredible last-to-first drive in the Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte Motor Speedway.
Don't let his current position of 21st in the standings fool you. He's still in the prime of his career, and he might not have even peaked yet.
Longtime Hendrick partner Ally Financial's contract with the team is also due to be up after 2028. Even if they don't renew, Chastain has been the new Busch Light driver since Kevin Harvick's retirement.
And if they do renew, then you eliminate the need for a rotating cast of characters on William Byron's car almost every week.
It's much less of a risk than promoting Day or Zilisch too soon. Both do have tremendous upside, but another element of the sport's development process that has become abundantly clear in recent years is the fact that the O'Reilly Series has fallen behind the Craftsman Truck Series in terms of getting young drivers ready to compete at the Cup level. And both of them skipped the Truck Series.
With that high upside comes high potential for regret. With Chastain, Hendrick wouldn't have to worry about the latter. The only issue would be burying a hatchet that most would have forgotten existed by now, if not for the ever-so-convenient (and still problematic) downturn in Trackhouse's performance from that day forward.
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