There are just three races remaining on the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series regular season schedule following this past Sunday's Iowa Corn 350, with events at Richmond Raceway, New Hampshire Motor Speedway, and Daytona International Speedway set to wrap up the pre-playoff slate later this month.
Under the new "Chase" playoff format, the 16 postseason spots are simply set to go to the drivers who finish the 26-race regular season in the top 16 in the point standings, since there is no more "win and in", and the battle at the cut line is heating up as the regular season winds down.
Team Penske's Austin Cindric currently holds the 16th and final postseason spot by 29 points, but he hasn't finished a race inside the top 10 since May and remains far from comfortable, with that gap trending in the wrong direction.
Trackhouse Racing's Shane van Gisbergen is only 18 points ahead of Cindric in 15th, and while his improvement on ovals has been evident, there's no guarantee that it will be enough to keep him above the cutoff at those three tracks, all of which suit the strengths of multiple other drivers fighting for a top 16 position.
Yet both Cindric and SVG would be even closer to dropping out, had it not been for a NASCAR decision made in early May, one that could very well rear its ugly head for another postseason contender.
Ryan Preece penalty could alter NASCAR Cup Series playoffs
NASCAR deemed RFK Racing's Ryan Preece to have intentionally wrecked Joe Gibbs Racing's Ty Gibbs at Texas Motor Speedway, and they docked him 25 points because of it. Preece is currently the top driver below the cut line, and had that penalty not been issued, he'd be just four points below Cindric and 22 behind SVG.
It's entirely possible that that decision will have affected the playoffs, by the time the regular season concludes.
Preece would also be 43 points ahead of Trackhouse Racing's Ross Chastain, who sits 18th after a strong showing at Iowa on Sunday. Instead, he's just 18 markers ahead of a driver who seems to be picking up some much-needed momentum at the right time, and one who has proven in the past that he can get hot for more than just one week at a time.
Here's how the cut line currently looks, including all of those within 100 points of it on both sides.
NASCAR Cup Series playoff cut line picture
Rank | Name | Points | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|
12 | Daniel Suarez, No. 7 Spire Motorsports Chevrolet | 597 | +100 |
13 | Joey Logano, No. 22 Team Penske Ford | 586 | +89 |
14 | Bubba Wallace, No. 23 23XI Racing Toyota | 565 | +68 |
15 | Shane van Gisbergen, No. 97 Trackhouse Racing Chevrolet | 544 | +47 |
16 | Austin Cindric, No. 2 Team Penske Ford | 526 | +29 |
17 | Ryan Preece, No. 60 RFK Racing Ford | 497 | -29 |
18 | Ross Chastain, No. 1 Trackhouse Racing Chevrolet | 479 | -47 |
19 | Brad Keselowski, No. 6 RFK Racing Ford | 478 | -48 |
20 | Erik Jones, No. 43 Legacy Motor Club Toyota | 476 | -50 |
21 | Michael McDowell, No. 71 Spire Motorsports Chevrolet | 454 | -72 |
22 | A.J. Allmendinger, No. 16 Kaulig Racing Chevrolet | 438 | -88 |
Without Preece's penalty, 23XI Racing's Bubba Wallace would only be 43 points to the good, Team Penske's Joey Logano would only be 64 points to the good, and Spire Motorsports' Trackhouse Racing's Daniel Suarez would only be 75 points to the good, all margins that can mathematically be made up or lost in a single race.
The driver of the No. 60 Ford, of course, has not had a season to write home about. He hasn't finished a race higher than eighth all year, and he's one of only two drivers in the top 30 who can say that.
Yet on total points actually scored, he's literally only four points out of the top 16. His "consistency" has come in the form of 16 top 20 finishes, with only five of the top 10 variety, and that's been enough to keep him in the postseason discussion all year thus far.
And if he finishes within 25 points of that top 16 cutoff without actually getting in, it would be a decision by NASCAR to penalize him which would have cost him his first career postseason berth and allowed somebody else to compete in the upcoming 10-race "Chase".
It just might happen.
The antepenultimate race of the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series regular season is the Cook Out 400, which is set to be shown live on USA Network from Richmond Raceway starting at 7:00 p.m. ET this Saturday, August 15. Start a free trial of FuboTV and don't miss any of the action as the playoff battle heats up!
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