It's the moment NASCAR fans have all been waiting for: will the Cup Series finally break free from the Team Penske stranglehold of championships in the Next Gen era?
That question could very well be answered today at Martinsville Speedway, as both Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney likely need to win the 500-lap Xfinity 500 around the four-turn, 0.526-mile (0.847-kilometer) "Paperclip" in Ridgeway, Virginia to advance to the Championship 4 at Phoenix Raceway next weekend.
Joe Gibbs Racing's Christopher Bell and Hendrick Motorsports' Kyle Larson both have solid grips on the two remaining Championship 4 spots alongside Joe Gibbs Racing teammates Denny Hamlin and Chase Briscoe, who won at Las Vegas Motor Speedway and Talladega Superspeedway, respectively, earlier in the round of 8 to clinch their Championship 4 spots.
It's likely that the only way Bell or Larson miss the Championship 4 is if a winner emerges from below the cut line, given just how wide the margin is.
For that reason, Bell, Larson, Hamlin, and Briscoe all entered the week listed between +250 and +370 to win the championship.
NASCAR sees questionable shift before Martinsville
But none of the four drivers below the cutoff had odds shorter than +1200, with Blaney at +1200, Logano at +2000, and Hendrick Motorsports teammates Chase Elliott and William Byron at +2000 and +3000, respectively.
Blaney's +1200 being so much better than the odds of the other three made sense because of the fact that he was listed as the outright favorite to win the Xfinity 500 at +380. After all, he won this race in both 2023 and 2024 to punch his Championship 4 ticket, and he even went on to win the 2023 championship after having been listed at +3300 following the round of 8 opener.
But Blaney has dropped to +650 to win Sunday's race after qualifying 31st. Yet for some reason, his odds to win the championship have actually shortened to +1100.
Because he is effectively in a must-win situation, there is far more value on Blaney's +650 odds to win Sunday's race than there is on his current odds to win the championship.
In fact, there is zero value in betting on a Blaney championship right now, even if you're 100% sure he will be crowned a two-time champion next week.
So if you're backing Blaney to win the championship, your best bet is to bet on him to win at Martinsville – not to win the championship (yet).
The combination of these current odds imply he'd have a 62.5% chance to win the title if he wins at Martinsville. This is the equivalent of -167 odds. Even adjusted for the obligatory sportsbook house edge, you're looking at roughly -130 or -140.
Yet if he does win at Martinsville, there is no way his updated championship odds would be that short. He is literally the only remaining championship contender who has never won at Phoenix, despite winning the 2023 championship there. His odds would probably be, at the absolute shortest, slightly under +200.
For context, a 1-in-4 chance is +300. Even adjusted for that house edge, you're still looking at +250 or +260.
So if you are completely sold on Blaney winning the championship, your best bet is to bet on him to win at Martinsville, then roll over those winnings into his updated championship odds.
Full NASCAR Cup Series odds can be found here. Odds and availability are subject to change.
The Xfinity 500 is set to be shown live on NBC from Martinsville Speedway beginning at 2:00 p.m. ET this Sunday, October 26. Start a free trial of FuboTV now and don't miss any of the action from this year's remaining NASCAR Cup Series playoff action!