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How have the playoffs altered NASCAR Cup Series championship history?

It means nothing, but it's still fun to think about after another exciting NASCAR Cup Series season.
ByAsher Fair
Kyle Busch, Joe Gibbs Racing, NASCAR Cup Series
Kyle Busch, Joe Gibbs Racing, NASCAR Cup Series | Getty Images

We've reached that time of year when NASCAR Cup Series fans all have their own ideas about who the "real" champion is – all while the real champion, by definition, is actually crowned champion and awarded the Bill France Cup.

For the past 23 years, we've heard all kinds of complaints about the playoffs, regardless of the postseason format NASCAR uses. Of course, in some years those complaints are louder than they are in others, but they have always existed and will continue to exist as long as NASCAR opts against using a full-season points format over 36 races.

And even then, they'd still exist, as we saw pre-2004.

NASCAR even got criticism a year ago for how the championship battle turned out, even though the full-season points leader won the championship, simply because of how the championship was won (and lost).

It's a no-win situation, but it gives fans every reason to speculate over how things might have looked under a different format. And while we know the approach from some drivers may be different under different formats, it is kind of a fun thing to look at, if you assume all other things remain equal.

On Sunday at Homestead-Miami Speedway, it was Kyle Larson who claimed his second straight and third overall championship, despite the fact that he did not even come close to leading the series in season-long points. He benefited from the post-regular season points reset and used that momentum to kick-start a red-hot 10-race Chase, and nobody could stop him.

Not even Denny Hamlin, who scored more than 100 more points than any other driver over the full season and specifically finished 192 points ahead of Larson in that category.

It marked the 14th time in 23 years of NASCAR using some kind of postseason format in which the driver who led the full-season point standings did not actually win the championship.

How would the past 23 years have looked if NASCAR had never introduced a playoff format at all?

How have the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs changed history?

Note that this chart assumes that the points format for each season remains exactly the same as what was actually used.

Year

Actual champion

Full-season points leader

2004

Kurt Busch

Jeff Gordon

2005

Tony Stewart

Tony Stewart

2006

Jimmie Johnson

Jimmie Johnson

2007

Jimmie Johnson

Jeff Gordon

2008

Jimmie Johnson

Carl Edwards

2009

Jimmie Johnson

Jimmie Johnson

2010

Jimmie Johnson

Kevin Harvick

2011

Tony Stewart

Carl Edwards

2012

Brad Keselowski

Brad Keselowski

2013

Jimmie Johnson

Jimmie Johnson

2014

Kevin Harvick

Jeff Gordon

2015

Kyle Busch

Kevin Harvick

2016

Jimmie Johnson

Kevin Harvick

2017

Martin Truex Jr.

Martin Truex Jr.

2018

Joey Logano

Kyle Busch

2019

Kyle Busch

Kyle Busch

2020

Chase Elliott

Kevin Harvick

2021

Kyle Larson

Kyle Larson

2022

Joey Logano

Chase Elliott

2023

Ryan Blaney

William Byron

2024

Joey Logano

Kyle Larson

2025

Kyle Larson

Kyle Larson

2026

Kyle Larson

Denny Hamlin

A few key differences: Kurt Busch, Ryan Blaney, and Joey Logano still would not be champions, while Carl Edwards, William Byron, and Denny Hamlin would be.

Jeff Gordon, not Jimmie Johnson, would have seven titles; Johnson would have three, all in seasons he did actually win them. Kevin Harvick would have four, rather than one, and he ironically would not have won it in the year he actually won it. Tony Stewart would have two, rather than three.

The late Kyle Busch would also have two, but his first would not have come until three years after it actually came. Similarly, Chase Elliott would still have one, but he would have had to wait two more years after he actually won it. Kyle Larson would still have three, but with only two of them coming in years he was officially crowned.

And on the flip side, champions Brad Keselowski and Martin Truex Jr. still would have been champions the same years they were indeed crowned champions; nothing would have changed.

Who will reign supreme in 2027? The 2027 NASCAR Cup Series season is scheduled to get underway on Sunday, February 21, with live coverage of the 69th annual Daytona 500 from Daytona International Speedway set to be provided by Fox.

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