While he's sitting 16th in the NASCAR Cup Series point standings following Sunday's win at Watkins Glen International, an improvement over a year ago largely because of a slight improvement in his oval results, Trackhouse Racing's Shane van Gisbergen is not yet locked into this year's playoffs like he was when he won his first race of the 2025 season at Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez.
There is no more "win and in" this year, meaning that van Gisbergen is still locked into an intense points battle to qualify for the 16-driver postseason.
And while his oval performance has improved from a year ago, when he was 25th in total points during the regular season despite winning four road and street course races, he's still only 22nd in oval points this year, 71 points outside of the top 16 in that category.
The regular season consists of 12 remaining oval races, one remaining street course race, and one remaining road course race. He won at the Sonoma Raceway road course a year ago, and the street course race is set to be contested at a new venue on Naval Base Coronado in San Diego, California, which should bode well for him after he won the inaugural Chicago street race in 2023.
SVG not locked into NASCAR playoffs, and it won't be easy
But with Chicago and Mexico no longer on the calendar, it's no sure thing that SVG will be able to have enough success, particularly on the ovals, to score enough points to remain inside the top 16.
Of the 12 ovals remaining on the regular season schedule, 11 were featured on the 2025 calendar between mid-May and the end of the regular season. Van Gisbergen's top finish in such races was only 14th, and he recorded only four other top 20 results.
The bonus 15 points for wins certainly help, and they didn't exist a year ago. Had they existed, van Gisbergen actually would have finished the regular season 16th, rather than 25th. If he can collect those at both Sonoma and San Diego, he'll definitely have a better shot.
But aside from van Gisbergen, the other six winners so far this season are all inside the top seven in the point standings, and yes, they'd all be in the top eight even without those 15 bonus points.
It is worth noting that his single win at Watkins Glen this year wouldn't have been enough to lock van Gisbergen into the playoffs in 2025 either, but only because there are only 16 playoff spots and 26 regular season races.
The old format technically wasn't "win and in", as the playoff spots went to the regular season champion and the 15 drivers who ranked highest in wins, meaning that locking into the postseason this early in the year officially required a driver to win twice. There could be no more than 12 additional multi-race winners.
However, during the 12 seasons under that format, there was never a scenario where there were more than 16 regular season winners, even in 2022 when the entire season produced trips to victory lane for 19 different drivers.
The 13th race on the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series schedule is the Coca-Cola 600, which is set to be shown live on Amazon Prime Video, not Fox or Fox Sports 1, starting at 6:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, May 24. Don't miss any of the action from Charlotte Motor Speedway!
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