Joe Gibbs Racing's Denny Hamlin finished the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series season-opening Daytona 500 at Daytona International Speedway in 31st place, landing him in 33rd in the point standings, while Hendrick Motorsports' Kyle Larson finished 16th, landing him in a 14th place tie in the points.
Yet Hamlin is now the favorite to win the 2026 championship after Larson opened up the year as the favorite to defend his 2025 title at DraftKings Sportsbook.
It's always hard to read into the Daytona 500 results, so the fact that such a significant change has been made just one race into the year is an interesting development, especially since the driver who now possesses the favorite status is the one who is 19 points below the provisional playoff cut line.
New NASCAR championship favorite after Daytona 500
Hamlin is listed at +370, ahead of Larson at +400. No driver has won back-to-back championships since Jimmie Johnson won his first five in a row from 2006 to 2010.
Larson won the 2025 championship over Hamlin after Hamlin dominated the season finale at Phoenix Raceway before a caution with only three laps remaining. It was an outcome that proved to be the final nail in the coffin for the much-maligned Championship 4 knockout playoff format that was used from 2014 to 2025.
That said, Larson still would have been the champion in 2025 even if the new 2026 format had been utilized a year ago.
Updated NASCAR championship odds
Hendrick Motorsports' William Byron is listed third at +550, just ahead of Team Penske's Ryan Blaney and Joe Gibbs Racing's Christopher Bell at +600. Bell led all drivers in total points, excluding stage points, in 2025, and as a further indictment of the old playoff format, he somehow missed the Championship 4 despite the fact that he led all drivers in total points scored over the first nine races of the playoffs.
Joe Gibbs Racing's Chase Briscoe, who joined Hamlin, Larson, and Byron in the Championship 4, is listed sixth at +900, just ahead of Hendrick Motorsports' Chase Elliott at +1000.
23XI Racing's Tyler Reddick, the Daytona 500 champion – and points leader, thanks to NASCAR's updated points format which now awards 15 additional points to race winners – is listed eighth at +1400.
Team Penske's Joey Logano, who hasn't not won a championship in an even-numbered year since 2020 – and would ironically be a four-time champion, rather than a three-time champion, under the new format – is listed ninth at +1600.
Trackhouse Racing rookie Connor Zilisch rounds out the top 10 at +2000.
Full NASCAR Cup Series championship odds can be found here.
Race number two on the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series schedule is the Autotrader 400, which is set to be shown live on Fox from Atlanta Motor Speedway (now EchoPark Speedway) beginning at 3:00 p.m. ET this Sunday, February 22. Start a free trial of FuboTV and don't miss the second superspeedway race in a row to start the season!