After 12 years of the knockout playoff format, NASCAR did away with "win and in" ahead of the 2026 season and reverted back to the old "Chase" system, with only a few modifications from how things were back from 2004 to 2013.
With no more "win and in", there is technically nobody mathematically locked into the 10-race Cup Series playoffs after the 26-race regular season's first 17 races. However, up until this past weekend, all of the winners had been inside the provisional 16-driver playoff field; the 16 playoff drivers are now simply set to be the top 16 drivers in the regular season point standings.
In other words, the provisional 16-driver playoff field consisted of the same 16 drivers it would have consisted of under the 2025 format.
Now all of a sudden, two of the season's nine winners are not currently playoff drivers.
2 winners not in NASCAR Cup Series playoff picture
One of them is obvious, and it's Corey Heim, who isn't a full-time driver and isn't even eligible for points in the Cup Series since he's earning points as a part-time Craftsman Truck Series driver for Tricon Garage.
In only his 13th career start, Heim drove his way to victory lane in the series' inaugural race at Qualcomm Circuit on Naval Base Coronado. It happened in only his sixth start of the year, yet only three full-time Cup drivers have won more races this year than he has.
It was a stark contrast to what had happened in his previous street race appearance, when he infamously failed to qualify for the Chicago race back in July 2025.
As for the full-time winners this season, seven of them are inside the top nine in the point standings, with the lowest of those seven being Spire Motorsports' Carson Hocevar in ninth. Hocevar is still comfortably above the cut line, 114 points to the good.
While NASCAR fans tend to criticize drivers who win at drafting tracks but nowhere else, a category in which Hocevar technically still fits, his overall improvement across the board has been evident even dating back to 2025, and he's been a contender elsewhere as well.
But one other driver who has long been criticized for only being good at one type of circuit is Trackhouse Racing's Shane van Gisbergen, who ironically fell outside of the top 16 at that very circuit type this past weekend.
SVG, whose Watkins Glen International victory in May would have been enough to get him into the playoffs under the previous format, is now 17th in the point standings, five points below the playoff cut line, after being knocked out of the Coronado race in a multi-car wreck. The road and street course ace had been the favorite to win that race, even before taking pole position.
Interestingly, even though the road course ace could only manage a 25th place finish in the 2025 regular season standings, despite winning four races, the new bonus points awarded to winners this year would have actually elevated him into the top 16 a year ago.
Still, even with steady oval improvement from the driver of the No. 97 Chevrolet so far this year, his seven finishes of 30th or worse have him needing to battle his way to make back-to-back playoff appearances to begin his career as a full-time Cup Series driver.
The fact that he has only one win, and with only one road course race remaining on this year's schedule, has resulted in some alarm bells, and justifiably so.
Can he get back inside the top 16? How many total race winners will end up missing the playoffs?
The Toyota Save Mart 350, a race SVG won a year ago, is the 18th race on the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series regular season schedule, and it is set to be shown live on TNT Sports from Sonoma Raceway starting at 3:30 p.m. ET this Sunday, June 28.
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