Formula 1: Is Lewis Hamilton poised to tie the championship record?

Is Lewis Hamilton poised to tie Michael Schumacher’s Formula 1 championship record after Ferrari signed Charles Leclerc to replace Kimi Raikkonen?

Scuderia Ferrari recently signed Alfa Romeo Sauber rookie Charles Leclerc to replace 2007 Formula 1 champion Kimi Raikkonen starting in the 2019 Formula 1 season. Raikkonen is now set to retire from the sport.

One of the key ramifications of the 20-year-old Monegasque signing this contract has to do with the potential for Mercedes-AMG Petronas Motorsport’s Lewis Hamilton to tie Michael Schumacher’s all-time record of seven Formula 1 championships.

Here’s why.

Raikkonen, who drove for Ferrari from the 2007 season through the 2009 season, returned to the team in the 2014 season, which was two-time Formula 1 champion Fernando Alonso’s fifth and final season driving for the team.

In the 2015 season, Ferrari signed four-time Formula 1 champion Sebastian Vettel. Raikkonen, who still hasn’t won a race since returning to the Scuderia more than four years ago, has played a support role for the 31-year-old German ever since he was signed, and that is one of the primary reasons why Ferrari continued to sign Raikkonen to contract extension after contract extension over the last few years. They wanted him to continue to do so.

There’s a well-known saying that goes, “Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results”.

Those “results” have been Hamilton finishing ahead of Vettel in the driver standings despite the fact that Raikkonen has played a support role to Vettel ever since 2015 and the fact that Raikkonen keep signing him to new contracts to do so. In the 2015, 2016 and 2017 seasons, Hamilton finished in first, second and first place, respectively, in the driver standings, while Vettel finished in third, fourth and second, respectively.

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While some of this can be attributed to the fact that Ferrari were not quite on Mercedes’ level until last season, the fact remains that the two powerhouse teams have been on about as equal ground as there could possibly be, yet Hamilton continues to prevail over his fellow four-time Formula 1 champion. He won last season’s championship by 46 points (363 to 317) over Vettel.

Some people may make the case that Ferrari were not quite on Mercedes’ level even last season, which may or may not be completely true, and there are certainly plenty of reasons to believe that they have improved more than Mercedes have from last year to this year and that they are, in fact, better than the Silver Arrows this year.

However, if the 2018 season is really the season during which Ferrari have “caught” Mercedes, why did Hamilton lead Vettel by 24 points (213 to 189) in the driver standings during this season’s summer break while Vettel led Hamilton by 14 points (202 to 188) in the driver standings during last season’s summer break?

Hamilton has certainly capitalized on more of Vettel’s mistakes than Vettel has of Hamilton’s mistakes so far this season. Vettel has won four races on outright pace so far this season while Hamilton has won three, but Hamilton has been more opportunistic than Vettel has and secured an extra three victories as a result of it while Vettel has secured just an extra one.

But instead of signing Raikkonen to yet another contract extension with the hope that he will continue doing what he has been doing for Vettel, Ferrari signed promising Alfa Romeo Sauber rookie Charles Leclerc, the 20-year-old 2016 GP3 Series champion and 2017 Formula 2 champion who is a member of the Ferrari Driver Academy.

Leclerc can potentially push Vettel to be better, be an instant championship contender and challenge Hamilton as a Ferrari driver if he is able to do a better job of taking advantage of Ferrari’s improvements than Vettel has.

As opposed to re-signing Raikkonen and committing to having one championship contender for the next few seasons by re-signing Raikkonen, Ferrari have essentially committed to having two drivers who can compete for race wins and championships.

That one previous championship contender has not yet proven he has what it takes to stop Hamilton, and the driver who is currently in place to help him do so has not yet proven that he can be the difference in him doing so.

Should we really have expected different results had Ferrari re-signed him?

No, and that’s why signing Leclerc was Ferrari’s best option from a team perspective and from a driver championship perspective. Had they re-signed Raikkonen, Hamilton would have likely become the second seven-time Formula 1 champion by the time the 2020 season ended. This is no longer necessarily the case.

The bottom line is this. Ferrari signing Raikkonen to continue to play a support role for Vettel would make little to no difference in Vettel’s championship hopes. Raikkonen is 0 for 3 in helping Vettel win championships, and that will likely go to 0 for 4 after this season, 0 for 5 after next season, 0 for 6 after the 2020 season and so on.

For Vettel to win his fifth career Formula 1 championship, he is going to have to take full advantage of Ferrari’s improvements and go out there and take the fight to Hamilton himself, and that is something that we have not yet seen even with Ferrari being on if not above Mercedes’ level. Raikkonen plays no role in this. None.

Even with Ferrari’s recent improvements, Hamilton is still the championship favorite because of what Ferrari’s driver situation has been.

Hamilton would have continued to be the undisputed championship favorite had Ferrari re-signed Raikkonen even if Ferrari continued to improve and Vettel continued to dominate a few races here and there like he has so far this season.

Just because Ferrari have been improving doesn’t mean Mercedes haven’t been and/or won’t be even if Ferrari continue to have the upper hand, unless, of course, they become the clear top team in Formula 1, a scenario that is extremely hard to envision at this point.

With Charles Leclerc having signed a contract to replace Kimi Raikkonen at Ferrari beginning in the 2019 Formula 1 season, do you believe that Lewis Hamilton is in an optimal position to tie Michael Schumacher on the all-time Formula 1 championships list by the time the 2020 season comes to a close?