Formula 1: Is the 2021 Silly Season overhyped?

With several big-name drivers now already under contract for beyond the 2020 Formula 1 season, is the 2021 Silly Season beginning to look overhyped?

With the 2020 Formula 1 driver lineup having been so quickly set and including 18 of the 2019 season’s 20 drivers staying put, much of the Silly Season focus shifted to the 2021 season early.

Entering the offseason between the 2019 and 2020 seasons, a small amount, two to be exact, of drivers were under contract for beyond the conclusion of the 2020 season.

Sergio Perez had recently signed a three-year contract extension with Racing Point through the 2022 season and Esteban Ocon, one of the two drivers set to compete in the 2020 season after sitting out the 2019 season, had recently signed a two-year deal through the 2021 season to drive for Renault.

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Add in the fact that Liberty Media are slated to introduce new rules and regulations aimed at making the sport more competitive ahead of the 2021 season, including a $175 million budget cap from which driver salaries are exempt, and it was even more clear that the upcoming Silly Season could be chaotic as far as driver movement is concerned.

Since then, only two more drivers have signed contract extensions, which doesn’t completely change this narrative. But based on who those two drivers are, it is beginning to look like the much-hyped 2021 Silly Season may not actually result in a ton of changes to the driver lineup.

This is something that Red Bull Racing team principal Christian Horner hinted at earlier in the offseason.

Here is what he had to say back in December, according to Motorsport.

"“I think all the top guys are out of contract for the end of next year. He [Verstappen] is very happy in this team. We love having him in the team, he fits very well here. It’s down to us to give him a competitive car next year, but I think ultimately when the music stops I wouldn’t be at all surprised for everybody to end up remaining in the same seats.“I think [Charles] Leclerc’s under contract at Ferrari. Lewis obviously is pretty happy in his environment. Max is happy in his environment. So if they’re sitting in competitive cars next year, why would they swap, or why would they move?”"

At this point, it looks like he could be right.

The contracts of several big-name drivers were slated to expire at the end of the 2020 season. Now here we are, still just under two months away from the start of the 2020 season, and even this has almost changed completely.

Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc, who was confirmed through the 2020 season but believed to be under contract through the 2022 season anyway, officially extended his deal to remain in Maranello for at least another five seasons through 2024.

Shortly thereafter, Red Bull Racing did what Horner hinted at above and signed Verstappen to a three-year contract extension through the 2023 season, which came as a shock to some considering the fact that it was believed Honda’s performance in their second season as the team’s engine manufacturer would play a role in the 22-year-old Dutchman’s decision.

Now Lewis Hamilton, who has been the subject of the biggest rumor of the offseason, is set to stay put as well, with official confirmation pending. Hamilton had been rumored to replace Sebastian Vettel at Ferrari alongside Leclerc, but he is reportedly in line to sign another two-year contract extension with Mercedes to keep him with the team through at least the 2022 season.

So what could actually change?

Valtteri Bottas is under contract with Mercedes through the 2020 season on a fourth consecutive one-year deal. As long as Hamilton is winning races and championships for the Silver Arrows, the 30-year-old Finn should be safe, as he has proven on multiple occasions that he is a great team player and not an immediate championship threat to Hamilton to the point where he could cause any kind of drama.

Even if Mercedes wanted to get ride of him after 2020, to whom would they turn? Mercedes junior driver George Russell competes for Williams, which stated that he isn’t going anywhere until at least after the 2021 season.

While Mercedes are believed to be able to pry him free from that deal, we just saw them take Bottas, a veteran, over Ocon, a young driver, for the 2020 season. With Russell slated to remain at Williams for another year anyway, they’d have no reason to push Bottas away.

Vettel seems like the only driver among the top three teams who is poised not to return in 2021 given his recent decline in performance. Several drivers have been discussed as potential replacement candidates for him, but Daniel Ricciardo looks like the likely one.

Ricciardo had been linked to Ferrari during his time at Red Bull Racing before leaving Red Bull Racing for Renault on a two-year deal after the 2018 season. Renault have already hinted that he won’t be back in 2021 because they want to replace him with a young Renault Sport Academy driver, so the puzzle piece fits.

Other than that, what major changes could happen in 2021?

Red Bull Racing’s second seat is interesting, but as long as Alexander Albon performs well, that seat is his to lose, and he both performed well and improved during his nine races with the team in 2019.

Even if he loses his ride, he would likely stay within the Red Bull organization, swapping seats with Pierre Gasly at sister team AlphaTauri, just like they did after the first 12 races of the 2019 season, but in the opposite direction. Daniil Kvyat could end up on the hot seat at AlphaTauri after the 2020 season, but he did well enough in 2019 that it would take a horrible year for him to be gone.

The up-and-coming McLaren team don’t appear to be in position to make any changes to their driver lineup given the camaraderie and talent possessed by Lando Norris and Carlos Sainz Jr., and it would be a major shocker (to the point where it’s almost not even worth mentioning) if Lance Stroll is no longer driving for his father Lawrence’s team, Racing Point, in 2021 and beyond.

As for Williams, we already touched on Russell. Their second seat could be interesting, but if Nicholas Latifi, the lone rookie in the 2020 field, performs well enough, he should be back again next year. Plus, he brings significant funding to a struggling team that have recently lost several key sponsors.

That leaves Alfa Romeo Racing and Haas. Alfa Romeo Racing will continue to have one driver determined by Ferrari, meaning that Antonio Giovinazzi could be back, and if not, Ferrari Driver Academy driver Mick Schumacher could be promoted from Formula 2. Kimi Raikkonen has a ride with the team for as long as he wants it, so unless he retires, he should back as well.

Haas are an X factor, but it seems like that is the case every year, yet they continue to bring back the same pairing of Kevin Magnussen and Romain Grosjean, even though the latter continues to struggle and make mistakes that would get 99% of the rest of the field fired.

This driver lineup is surprisingly tied for the second longest tenured lineup in Formula 1 with Mercedes’ pairing of Hamilton and Bottas.

Magnussen should be back, but perhaps they will move on from Grosjean and go with Nico Hulkenberg, who they passed up for the 2020 season to bring back the struggling Grosjean for some reason.

With all of this considered, the 2021 Silly Season doesn’t look like it will resemble anything close to what was once thought. Between the 2018 and 2019 seasons, eight drivers, including just two pairs of teammates, stayed put. Six drivers switched teams and six more were replaced. In total, four of the 10 teams completely overhauled their drier lineups.

But the 2021 Silly Season could end up looking more like the 2020 Silly Season, when just two drivers were replaced and 18 drivers, including eight pairs of teammates, stayed put.

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When the 2021 Formula 1 season rolls around, will the driver lineup look like the 2020 driver lineup, or will there still be a considerable amount of changes? At this point, 2021 is trending toward a Silly Season without much change.

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