NASCAR: Playoff elimination at Bristol – who’s in, who’s out?

The first elimination race of the 2020 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs is upon us at Bristol Motor Speedway. Who is in and who is out?

The third and final race of the first of four rounds of the 10-race 2020 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs, the Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race, is scheduled to take place this evening at Bristol Motor Speedway.

After this race, four of the 16 playoff drivers will be eliminated from championship contention, while the other 12 will move on to compete in the three-race round of 12, which includes events at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, Talladega Superspeedway and the Charlotte Motor Speedway Roval.

Three drivers, Stewart-Haas Racing’s Kevin Harvick, Team Penske’s Brad Keselowski and Joe Gibbs Racing’s Denny Hamlin, have already secured their spots in the round of 12.

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Harvick won the round of 16 opener at Darlington Raceway, Keselowski won last Saturday night’s race at Richmond Raceway, and Hamlin cannot mathematically fall below the round of 12 cut line, even if it moves up by one position in the event of tonight’s winner coming from below it.

Here is a look at how the other 13 playoff drivers stack up heading into tonight’s 500-lap race around the four-turn, 0.533-mile (0.858-kilometer) high-banked oval in Bristol, Tennessee.

Position – Driver: Points (Ahead/Behind)
4th – Joey Logano: 2109 (+51)
5th – Martin Truex Jr.: 2096 (+38)
6th – Austin Dillon: 2094 (+36)
7th – Chase Elliott: 2086 (+28)
8th – Alex Bowman: 2085 (+27)
9th – Kyle Busch: 2076 (+18)
10th – Aric Almirola: 2065 (+7)
10th – Kurt Busch: 2065 (+7)
12th – Clint Bowyer: 2061 (+3)
————ROUND OF 12 CUT LINE————
13th – William Byron: 2058 (-3)
14th – Cole Custer: 2053 (-8)
15th – Matt DiBenedetto: 2036 (-25)
16th – Ryan Blaney: 2034 (-27)

Without winning, each driver has the capability of making up 54 points on any given competitor, as a maximum of 55 points are on the table for non-winners (stage one win is worth 10 points, stage two win is worth 10 points and second place race finish is worth 35 points), and all drivers who compete are guaranteed to score at least one point.

A win by any driver automatically advances him to the next round. But a driver from below the round of 12 cut line winning tonight’s race would effectively move the cut line up by one position, meaning that each driver’s gap to safety could be shifted.

For instance, Joey Logano is 51 points ahead of the current round of 12 cut line, but he is only 48 points ahead of where the round of 12 cut line could be should an upset winner emerge this evening.

Here is how that scenario looks.

Position – Driver: Points (Ahead/Behind)
4th – Byron/Custer/DiBenedetto/Blaney (NEW WINNER)
5th – Joey Logano: 2109 (+48)
6th – Martin Truex Jr.: 2096 (+35)
7th – Austin Dillon: 2094 (+33)
8th – Chase Elliott: 2086 (+25)
9th – Alex Bowman: 2085 (+24)
10th – Kyle Busch: 2076 (+15)
11th – Aric Almirola: 2065 (+4)
11th – Kurt Busch: 2065 (+4)
————ROUND OF 12 CUT LINE————
13th – Clint Bowyer: 2061 (-4)

Under the assumption that each individual driver isn’t the NEW WINNER…
William Byron: 2058 (-7)
Cole Custer: 2053 (-12)
Matt DiBenedetto: 2036 (-29)
Ryan Blaney: 2034 (-31)

Which nine drivers will join Kevin Harvick, Brad Keselowski and Denny Hamlin in the round of 12? Tune in to NBC Sports Network at 7:30 p.m. ET this evening for the live broadcast of the 2020 Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race from Bristol Motor Speedway.