Is this year’s ESPY winner a foregone conclusion?

There are four nominees from four different racing series for this year’s Best Driver ESPY award, but is it really going to be much of a competition?

The four nominees for this year’s Best Driver ESPY Award have been revealed after there were no ESPYS awarded in 2020 as a result of COVID-19-related restrictions.

NASCAR‘s Kyle Busch, the reigning winner of the award, is not among the four nominees. NASCAR’s representative this year is reigning Cup Series champion Chase Elliott, who has never before been nominated for this award.

Representing Formula 1 is four-time reigning and seven-time world champion Lewis Hamilton. Representing IndyCar is reigning and six-time champion Scott Dixon. Finally, representing NHRA is two-time reigning and four-time Pro Stock champion Erica Enders.

You can vote here.

Hamilton and Dixon have both been nominated six times before. Seven times is a new record; they had shared the record with John Force. Enders has been nominated twice before.

But with all things considered, it is practically a foregone conclusion that Elliott is going to walk away with this award.

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Suffice it to see that his competition within this quartet will be a lot less than the competition which he faced at Phoenix Raceway last November to secure his maiden Cup Series title — and in that race, he led the most laps despite starting in last place, while the other three championship contenders started inside the top three.

First of all, the last time somebody other than a NASCAR driver won it was in 2017, when Hamilton won it. At that point, he had only won three world titles, yet he hasn’t managed to win it since, despite the fact that he has not lost a championship battle since then. He has by far the biggest global audience among this quartet, yet he has only won the award once.

Before Busch won it in 2019, Martin Truex Jr. won it in 2018 after winning the 2017 championship. Neither driver had the advantage of being the sport’s most popular driver.

Elliott has won the Most Popular Driver Award three years in a row following the retirement of Dale Earnhardt Jr., who won it in 15 straight seasons. Chase’s father Bill won the award a record 16 times, and Chase is probably going to win it every year before he retires.

Dixon, despite having been nominated a record six times prior to this year, has never won it. No IndyCar driver has won it since Ryan Hunter-Reay won it two years in a row in 2013 (after winning the 2012 championship) and in 2014 (after winning the Indy 500).

Finally, barring some miracle, Enders isn’t going to become the first non-NASCAR, Formula 1 or IndyCar driver to win it in; drivers from those three series (including CART for IndyCar) have won it all 27 times thus far.

So much like it is with NASCAR’s annual Most Popular Driver Award, it is practically a foregone conclusion that the 2021 Best Driver ESPY Award belongs to Elliott.

The ESPYS are set to be broadcast live on ABC beginning at 8:00 p.m. ET on Saturday, July 10.