NASCAR Atlanta odds, predictions: The Kyles lead the way

NASCAR is set for its second Cup Series race at Atlanta Motor Speedway this Sunday. Who are the favorites to win the Quaker State 400?

The 21st race of the NASCAR Cup Series season and the second to last race before the three-week summer break is scheduled to take place at Atlanta Motor Speedway this Sunday, July 11.

This race, the Quaker State 400 presented by Walmart, is scheduled to be a 260-lap race around the four-turn, 1.54-mile (2.478-kilometer) oval in Hampton, Georgia, which is 65 laps shorter than the race at the track which was contested back in March.

Team Penske’s Ryan Blaney won the March race at the track after making a late pass for the lead on a dominant Kyle Larson, who leads Hendrick Motorsports and the entire Cup Series with four wins through 20 races this year.

Where is the Quaker State 400?

For the first time since the 2010 season, Atlanta Motor Speedway has two race dates. Its first race of the season was contested back in March. This Sunday’s race used to be contested at Kentucky Speedway, but Kentucky Speedway was scrapped from the calendar after the 2020 season.

Who is on pole for Atlanta?

Hendrick Motorsports’ Chase Elliott is set to start Sunday’s race from the pole position as a result of NASCAR’s starting lineup formula. NASCAR is not set to see an actual qualifying session until next month, ahead of the inaugural race at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course.

Atlanta race broadcast information

The Quaker State 400 is set to be broadcast live from Atlanta Motor Speedway on NBC Sports Network beginning at 3:30 p.m. ET on Sunday, July 11.

Betting odds for Atlanta

Kyle Larson is listed as an overwhelming favorite at +200. This means that a $100 bet on the driver of the #5 Chevrolet would win an additional $200 should Larson find victory lane. It implies that Larson has a 33.33% chance to win the race [100/(100+200)].

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Joe Gibbs Racing’s Kyle Busch is the second favorite at +650, and Chase Elliott is third at +700. Eight drivers are listed between +750 and +1200, led by Stewart-Haas Racing’s Kevin Harvick, who won at Atlanta Motor Speedway last year. March race winner Ryan Blaney sits seventh at +900.

Behind Hendrick Motorsports’ Alex Bowman at +1200, Chip Ganassi Racing’s Kurt Busch leads the way among the longshots at +2200.

Betting insights

Larson has responded well from watching his three-race winning streak end with a flat tire in the final turn on the final lap at Pocono Raceway. He backed that up with a second place finish in the second race at Pocono Raceway and ran well at Road America before late contact ended his chance for a solid result.

He also dominated the race at Atlanta Motor Speedway in March, leading 269 of the 325 laps in his first start at the track since he dominated there in 2019 before being taken out of contention with a pit lane speeding penalty. Look for him to get back to his winning ways on Sunday afternoon.

Quaker State 400 prediction

Don’t sleep on the other Kyle, however, especially at +650. Busch seems to have turned a corner after a down 2020 season and a poor start to 2021. He has recorded three straight top three finishes and finished in fifth place at Atlanta Motor Speedway, a track where he has always run well, back in March, even amid his struggles.

While Elliott is sure to draw some attention at +700, being the hometown hero, the polesitter, and the winner of the most recent race at Road America, you may want to pass on him this week. He has never finished higher than fifth place at Atlanta Motor Speedway in six starts, and the last time a polesitter won at the track was in March 2006; 20 races have been contested there since then.

As for March winner Blaney, he’s also probably not worth the gamble. He has never won twice in a single season, and unlike in March when he had time to run Larson down, this Sunday’s race is 65 laps shorter.

Harvick at +750 is also not worth the gamble. Prior to 2021, Atlanta Motor Speedway was a track where he would dominate regularly, but he and the #4 team simply haven’t had the speed to contend for wins this year, as was evident in the first race there back in March when he limped home to a 10th place result.

As for another driver who may be worth betting on, Bowman has had the speed to position himself in the right place at the right time several times this season, despite not being as dominant as Larson. With three wins in the last 12 races and a third place finish at Atlanta Motor Speedway in March, +1200 may turn out to be a bargain.

If you’re targeting a longshot, Richard Childress Racing’s Austin Dillon may be worth a second look. He finished the March race in sixth place and is listed at +3000 for this Sunday’s race. He and the #3 team have taken some big steps this season as far as being more competitive week in and week out, and they could be on the cusp of a breakthrough.

Make your pick now in New Jersey, Indiana or Colorado.