NASCAR: The ultimate conundrum of the 2021 playoffs

Martin Truex Jr. is putting together a strong season ahead of the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs. But is he a title favorite or a dark horse?

When considering a list of the top contenders for the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series championship, Martin Truex Jr. is probably not the first name that comes to mind.

Kyle Larson has been the top driver of the season so far, leading the series with five wins and 18 top 10 finishes, while Denny Hamlin has been the top Joe Gibbs Racing driver, having recorded 17 top 10 finishes and a series-best average finish of 8.9, despite not having any wins.

Kyle Busch has a top five finish in seven of the last 11 races, defending champion Chase Elliott has a top 10 finish in 11 of the last 15 races, and Ryan Blaney is the most recent race winner, making the 2021 season the first multi-win season of his career.

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Truex, on the other hand, has appeared to drift out of contention since his win at Darlington Raceway over three and a half months ago, leading just 73 of the 2,475 laps he has run since then. He has recorded just five top 10 finishes in 13 races during that span.

In the last 10 races, Truex Jr. ranks 10th in laps led and is tied for seventh in number of top 10 finishes. He has been involved in significant on-track incidents in three of the last four events.

At New Hampshire Motor Speedway, Truex spun into the wall from second place early on when it started raining. At the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course, he spun as part of a multi-car wreck that brought out the final caution flag. And then at Michigan International Speedway, he got into a slowing Joey Logano in a multi-car wreck that brought out the final caution flag.

While it doesn’t feel like Truex has been much of a contender, he has actually been putting together a championship-caliber campaign. In those three races when he was involved in on-track incidents, he finished in 12th, 15th and 10th place, respectively.

In the last 10 races, his 10.6 average finish ranks fifth. He is one of just three drivers to complete all but one lap (three other drivers have completed every lap), and he has earned the sixth most points with 303.

While Truex was certainly better earlier in the season than he has been in recent races, he has still held his ground, which is reflected in his overall numbers.

His 681 laps led rank lower than only Larson and Hamlin, his three wins are tied with Alex Bowman and fewer than only Larson, and his 20 playoff points are second only to Larson’s 37.

Truex’s quiet performance in recent races makes him look like a dark horse entering the playoffs, where he could have an early advantage.

If the playoffs started today, he would sit in second place in the standings after the opening playoff reset with 2,025 points. Granted, that is far less than Larson’s 2,052, and the next six drivers below Truex are all within 10 points. Still, it would be a better position than 14 of the other 15 playoff drivers.

It is also worth noting that Truex’s three wins this season came at tracks featured in the playoffs. Darlington Raceway is set to host the opening race, Martinsville Speedway is set to host the penultimate race and Phoenix Raceway is where the champion is set to be crowned for the second consecutive season.

Truex has proven himself to be a constant contender in the knockout-style playoffs, reaching the Championship 4 in four of seven seasons under this format and winning the title in 2017. His past success under this format and his 2021 wins at the final two tracks on the schedule make his title hopes look quite promising.

While he hasn’t looked like a contender in recent events, Truex has been putting together a championship-caliber season, meaning that the driver who looks like a dark horse at the moment could actually be considered one of the title favorites.