Phoenix Raceway might not be the host of the NASCAR Cup Series championship decider any longer, after six consecutive years of serving in that role, but it might well decide the inevitable championship fate for several of the 16 drivers who entered this year's 10-race Chase postseason with title aspirations.
For the first time in the 2026 playoffs, multiple drivers are facing the possibility of being mathematically eliminated this weekend. A maximum of 304 points remain up for grabs for each driver with four races left on the calendar, with 76 available in each race.
After Sunday's 312-lap Freeway Insurance 500 around the four-turn, 1.022-mile (1.645-kilometer) Avondale, Arizona oval, that number is set to drop to 228, meaning that any driver who is not within 152 points of the championship lead can potentially be eliminated this weekend.
Eight drivers are in that category, although for several of them, it would take a disastrous Sunday, coupled with a near-perfect afternoon for championship leader Kyle Larson, to solidify their elimination.
For others, Sunday's race might simply solidify the inevitable by officially whittling down the championship field before the season's final three events.
Here are three drivers who we don't believe will remain championship eligible after this weekend.
Daniel Suarez, Spire Motorsports
It's been an incredible season for Daniel Suarez after he was pretty much written off following his departure from Trackhouse Racing. He won the Coca-Cola 600, qualified for the postseason on points, and recently welcomed his first child with wife Julia Piquet.
But he unfortunately did not finish a single one of the first six playoff races in the top 12 and now finds himself 215 points out of the championship lead. With just one top 10 finish at Phoenix (10th in 2024) in his eight most recent starts at the track, this could be it for his championship hopes.
On the plus side, he's never been mathematically eligible to win the title this late into a year before, even after twice getting into the playoffs via "win and in". Based on expectations, he's still arguably deserving of an A-grade in 2026.
Chris Buescher, RFK Racing
Chris Buescher had a quietly productive regular season by making a habit of staying out of trouble, recording just one DNF. But he was always going to need the same kind of lightning in a bottle that netted him wins in three consecutive oval victories late in the 2023 regular season in order to have even a remote chance at this year's championship.
That lightning has not struck twice. In fact, he still hasn't earned an oval win since that streak. His 10th place finish this past weekend at Charlotte Motor Speedway is tied for his best finish since June. Sitting 216 points out of the lead, he needs everything to go right to remain in contention.
That said, he did post a top five finish at Phoenix in each of 2023, 2024, and 2025. After finishing 14th there in March, perhaps he's due for a strong run. It just might not be strong enough, which has kind of been the theme for RFK Racing in recent years.
Ryan Preece, RFK Racing
One of the feel-good stories of the 2026 postseason was Ryan Preece securing a walk-off regular season finale victory at Daytona International Speedway to lock himself in on points, even though "win and in" is no longer technically a thing.
But his first career playoff appearance has not given the No. 60 team much to write home about. Like Buescher, he has finished no higher than 10th, and with him sitting at 227 points behind Larson, he is the one driver on this list who absolutely needs to outscore the points leader this weekend to stay in the fight.
For a driver who has never placed higher than ninth at a track where he's raced 14 times, that's a huge ask. At least he and Larson are technically tied with two wins this year, if you include Preece's Clash victory at Bowman Gray Stadium.
Other drivers facing elimination this weekend include 23XI Racing's Bubba Wallace, Spire Motorsports' Carson Hocevar, Joe Gibbs Racing's Ty Gibbs, and Hendrick Motorsports teammates Chase Elliott and William Byron. Live coverage of Sunday's Freeway Insurance 500 is set to be provided by USA Network starting at 3:00 p.m. ET. Don't miss any of the action from the season's seventh playoff race!
Add us as a preferred source on Google