While the narrative after Kyle Larson's huge victory at Kansas Speedway this past weekend has been that the two-time and reigning NASCAR Cup Series champion is suddenly well on his way to winning another championship, the fact is that there are still six races remaining on the 2026 postseason schedule, and his lead in the championship standings is far from safe.
Larson is now officially the betting favorite to become a three-time champion next month, which hasn't been true since early on in the season.
And there's little reason to sit here and try to argue against that, given his uptick in form since the playoffs started. In the season's first 27 races, he had one top two finish. He's since reeled off three in a row, including his first two wins of the year.
The obvious top challenger to Larson is obviously Denny Hamlin, who had been the title favorite dating back to May. He is still listed second behind Larson, and some sportsbooks actually still list him as the favorite, albeit only slightly; he hasn't won a race since mid-June. But in terms of total points scored through all 30 races contested so far this season, he's head and shoulders above everybody, most notably 222 above Larson.
But Hamlin is hardly the only driver still in the fight.
The other three primary challengers are Christopher Bell, Joey Logano, and Ryan Blaney, and not just because they are the three drivers who happen to be third, fourth, and fifth, respectively, in the point standings.
Bell has had Hamlin-like speed all year, and after a regular season in which he recorded seven runner-up finishes without a victory, the Joe Gibbs Racing driver finally broke through and got the postseason off to a hot start with a victory in the Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway.
He's only 50 points behind, and he's scored the second-most points (behind Larson) through the first four playoff races so far this year. He led more laps this year by May than he did a year ago, yet a year ago, he was the top playoff scorer before the Championship 4 (despite not actually qualifying for the Championship 4 due to the format). Another win or two, and he's right back in the fight.
Then there are the two Team Penske teammates. Logano is 67 points behind and Blaney is 91 points behind, but with usual Penske strongholds Phoenix Raceway and Martinsville Speedway still on the schedule, those leads are far from comfortable for Larson. Additionally, Team Penske tends to do well on superspeedways, and Talladega Superspeedway still looms on the calendar.
But perhaps most notably, don't overlook the 1.5-mile ovals. On paper, you'd think Las Vegas Motor Speedway and Charlotte Motor Speedway would be weak points for Team Penske, but Austin Cindric, who is widely considered the team's weakest link, just finished second, on pure pace, behind a dominant Larson at Kansas Speedway. Blaney was quietly fifth as well.
Specifically for Blaney, given the disastrous manner in which the races at Gateway and Bristol Motor Speedway ended for him, he's probably happy he's only 91 points out of the lead at this stage in the season.
Beyond those three (plus Hamlin, who is 26 points behind Larson), it's hard to see anybody else posing much of a threat.
Only Ty Gibbs is also within 100 points of Larson, and Larson has outscored him by 109 points through four playoff races. He has been consistent in what has been a breakout 2026 season, but you could still make the case that he's still the fourth out of four drivers on his own team, even after notching his first two wins.
Las Vegas Motor Speedway's South Point 400 is set to be shown live on USA Network beginning at 5:30 p.m. ET this Sunday, October 4. Don't miss the race that is set to mark the halfway point of this year's NASCAR Cup Series postseason!
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