Even before Denny Hamlin went on his three-race winning streak from late May into mid-June, he and the No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota had started to look like the team to beat for the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series championship.
They hadn't won since mid-March, but when Hamlin went from last to first to win at Nashville Superspeedway, he overtook then-points leader Tyler Reddick of 23XI Racing to become the championship favorite.
He solidified that status with another last-to-first driver at Michigan International Speedway before finishing his first career three-race win streak with a victory at Pocono Raceway. Two weekends later, he took the points lead from Sonoma Raceway, and he did not look back during the remainder of the regular season, sealing the regular season title even before the regular season finale.
But the start of the postseason has not been particularly kind to Hamlin. His 89-point regular season championship margin was reduced to 25 points thanks to the points reset. It dropped to 12 after the first playoff race and nine after the second playoff race, and he lost the lead to Hendrick Motorsports' Kyle Larson by one after the third playoff race.
Now Larson owns a 26-point lead over Hamlin, after leading 235 of 267 at Kansas Speedway, where Toyota, Joe Gibbs Racing, and Hamlin in particular were expected to be the combination to beat.
There's a new NASCAR title favorite
The two remaining races on 1.5-mile ovals on the 2026 schedule are the next two races on the schedule. The initial belief was that these two tracks, Las Vegas Motor Speedway and Charlotte Motor Speedway, would give Hamlin a golden opportunity to build up his points lead. But after what Larson did at Kansas, has the tide truly begun to turn?
According to the sportsbooks, yes, it has.
Hamlin had been the betting favorite to win the championship since that Nashville victory in late May. While the odds had tightened significantly in recent weeks, he still retained that status. But not anymore.
Larson, who was listed at +3500 just a few weeks ago, is now listed as the favorite to win the 2026 championship at DraftKings Sportsbook. He is listed at +110, placing him just ahead of Hamlin at +130. The only other driver listed with odds shorter than +1000 is Joe Gibbs Racing's Christopher Bell, who is 50 points behind Larson and listed at +450.
Full NASCAR Cup Series championship odds can be found at DraftKings Sportsbook and are always subject to change.
Will Larson retain his status as the favorite at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, where he has won three times since 2021? USA Network is set to provide live coverage of the South Point 400 starting at 5:30 p.m. ET this Sunday, October 4.
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