Every time you start talking about Denny Hamlin being the favorite to win a NASCAR Cup Series championship, it really does feel like we've been in this situation before, about 10 times, and it always seems to turn out the same way.
But Hamlin's performance in 2026, coupled with his heartbreak to end the 2025 season and the implementation of the new playoff format, has given fans renewed reason to believe that, come November, the late Junior Johnson might once again find himself as the winningest driver in Cup Series history without a championship.
Even before his three-race win streak in late May into June, Hamlin was the betting favorite to win the championship, because the races he wasn't winning were still races in which he showed he was the class of the field.
Now he has clinched the regular season title, which comes with a 100-point playoff bonus (25 points over second place), and is the overwhelming favorite to win this year's title at FanDuel Sportsbook. He's listed at +100.
Team Penske's Ryan Blaney, who is second in points with three victories, including two since July, is listed second at +550, followed by Joe Gibbs Racing's Christopher Bell and 23XI Racing's Tyler Reddick at +750.
Bell has had race-winning speed all year but somehow hasn't won, despite finishing second seven times, while Reddick leads the series in wins with five and should benefit from the points reset after losing what once seemed like an impenetrable regular season points lead.
Joe Gibbs Racing's Ty Gibbs is next at +850, as he's quietly third in points following his second win of the year at Iowa Speedway, and Team Penske's Joey Logano has crept up to sixth overall at +1500 following his own summer surge, which came amid ridiculous criticism that he was a "playoff merchant" who might not even qualify for the postseason under the new format.
The biggest name missing from that top five? Kyle Larson.
And he's not even listed anywhere close to those others, sitting even behind Joe Gibbs Racing's Chase Briscoe (+1600) and Hendrick Motorsports' Chase Elliott (+2500).
Larson hasn't been the Larson we are used to seeing this year, but those struggles date back to 2025, when he went the final 24 races of the year without a win but was able to mask that lack of dominance with a championship that ultimately came down to Hamlin's decision to pit for four tires, rather than two, in overtime after completely dominating the title race at Phoenix Raceway.
Larson is seventh in the standings this year and Hendrick Motorsports is clearly not on the level of Joe Gibbs Racing and Toyota as they continue to adjust to the new Chevrolet body. Even for as mediocre as Larson has been, he's still Chevy's top driver in points, which goes to show just how underwhelming things currently are.
Yes, he has still led the third-most laps (657), but that might be the most misleading stat in the series right now, because 284 of those laps came at Bristol Motor Speedway in April. If Blaney had anything other than a bottom-five pit crew, Larson leads maybe 10% of those laps. He's led just 60 total laps in the nine races contested since the start of summer.
Still, the points reset should benefit him, since that is guaranteed to bring him much closer to Hamlin in the standings to start the 10-race "Chase" postseason.
The fact that he's listed at +3500 is bizarre; even for as pedestrian as he's been, we'd think he'd be much closer to the Logano/Briscoe range than basically longshot range, especially after showing in 2025 that, even in a "win and in" format, he didn't even need to win at all after mid-May to work his way to the title. That exact approach could serve him even better in 2026.
Full NASCAR Cup Series championship odds are available at FanDuel Sportsbook and are always subject to change.
The 2026 NASCAR Cup Series regular season is set to conclude this Saturday, August 29 at Daytona International Speedway with the Coke Zero Sugar 400, and the playoffs are scheduled to begin on Sunday, September 6 with the Cook Out Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway. Start a free trial of FuboTV and tune in to NBC at 7:30 p.m. ET this Saturday night and don't miss any of the action!
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