There are two races remaining on the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series regular season schedule at New Hampshire Motor Speedway and Daytona International Speedway, and just seven of the 16 playoff spots have been officially solidified.
For all intents and purposes, six other drivers are relatively safe, as they are all more than 100 points above the cut line. Yes, there are still 152 points on the table, but only two drivers can win from this point forward.
There are just 112 points still available for all non-winners, meaning the battle is effectively just for the final three spots over the next two weekends.
At 50 points, there is a sizable gap from the 16th to 17th place drivers at the moment. RFK Racing's Ryan Preece, who is 17th, would actually be 25 points closer if not for a 25-point penalty from earlier this year. But the 14th to 16th place drivers are only separated by 20, meaning that if anything goes wrong, they could be at serious risk of dropping out.
And especially at Daytona, things are historically known to go wrong.
Here are the three drivers who are most at risk of falling out of the playoff picture before the playoffs get underway at Darlington Raceway in under three weeks.
Shane van Gisbergen, Trackhouse Racing
The fact that Shane van Gisbergen has been above the provisional playoff cut line for much of the season, after two tracks where he won in 2025 were removed from the regular season schedule, is impressive, especially since he actually had a DNF in one of the four non-oval races. While he's far from an oval ace, he's still clearly made progress on tracks with exclusively left turns.
But he finished 32nd at New Hampshire a year ago, and he's finished 30th or worse in three of his four starts at Daytona. His 50-point cushion over Preece is not nearly enough to feel safe.
Austin Cindric, Team Penske
Austin Cindric jumped from the 16th and final playoff spot to 15th with a third place finish at Richmond Raceway, moving him from 29 points ahead of the cutoff to 57.
But before then, he hadn't finished in the top 10 in an oval race since April, so for as quickly as things changed for him at Richmond, they can change just as quickly in the opposite direction if things don't go well for him over the next two weekends.
Bubba Wallace, 23XI Racing
After starting the 2026 season as one of the sport's most consistent drivers over the first month or so, Bubba Wallace has been anything but consistent since, and every time it looks like he's going to build up a decent gap over the cut line with a strong result, he stays right on the verge of being safe and being in the danger zone.
At 70 points above the cutoff, things aren't necessarily looking bad for him in terms of qualifying for the postseason, something he hasn't done on points since 2023. But Wallace's current run of two straight top 20 finishes is his longest such streak since April, and neither was in the top 10. If his inconsistency spells continue with more results in the 20s or 30s, that gap could shrink quickly.
Sunday's Dollar Tree 301 is set to be shown live on USA Network from New Hampshire Motor Speedway beginning at 2:00 p.m. ET this Sunday, August 23, following a late schedule change due to the weather forecast.
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