The NASCAR Cup Series Chase field has been set, with Ryan Preece earning the final spot over Shane van Gisbergen following his win in Saturday night's Coke Zero Sugar 400. That leaves 16 drivers battling for the title over the course of the next 10 weeks, with some having much higher aspirations than others.
Denny Hamlin and Joe Gibbs Racing have been the class of the field all season, while Ryan Blaney has been arguably the most impressive individual driver within his team. Anyone else taking home the trophy would probably be unexpected, but we've seen crazy things happen in this format before.
With that, here are three drivers who could be surprise championship contenders, as well as three who are doomed to disappoint.
Surprise: Christopher Bell
If there is a candidate to go on a 2011 Tony Stewart type of power run after being winless all season, it has to be Bell. He drives for the best team and has recorded seven runner-up results this year. The schedule suits him well with an excess of intermediates and short tracks, and you have to think that once he breaks through once, the victories will come in bunches. He's the best title sleeper pick in the field.
Disappointment: Carson Hocevar
NASCAR's most polarizing driver is getting cold at the wrong time. The notoriously aggressive Hocevar had an insanely unsustainable streak of no DNFs in the first 23 races of this season and now has two in his three most recent races, dropping from fifth to 12th in points during the month of August. He has the talent to bounce back, but he's the type who tends to overdrive under adversity and could just as easily dig himself into an even deeper hole.
Surprise: William Byron
Byron enters the Chase 13th in points, but it just seems like the No. 24 team is one to keep your eye on over these final months. Hendrick Motorsports has been able to game the system before with this format, and this team in particular has found another gear in the fall in past seasons. He'll have a big points hole to overcome, and likely a speed deficit to the Toyotas, but don't count him totally out of it.
Disappointment: Chase Elliott
Byron's teammate, on the other hand, you can probably write off. The No. 9 team has thrown away any goodwill they earned with their two early wins this season and then some, consistently struggling to find even top 15 speed over the summer and sliding from third to eighth in points. The best thing that can happen for Elliott is he finishes outside the top 10 and forces the changes around him that have been overdue for close to half a decade.
Surprise: Chris Buescher
Buescher isn't going to win the championship by any means. But a Clint Bowyer-esque backdoor top-five points finish shouldn't be out of the question for perhaps the greatest 12th place driver in NASCAR history. If RFK Racing has the speed, expect him to quietly churn out invisible top 10 finishes and climb much higher in the standings than many are expecting.
Disappointment: Joey Logano
Logano is a trendy sleeper pick because of his history of even-numbered-year devil magic and recent hot streak, but let's not get too far ahead of ourselves. For half of the season, he was a 15th-place driver until he hit a stretch of tracks that are in his and Team Penske's wheelhouse. That won't continue during the Chase, especially on the intermediates, and he'll be closer to the back of the postseason standings than the front.
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