The 2026 NASCAR Cup Series regular season is officially beyond its halfway mark, and there continue to be changes, week after week, to the provisional 16-driver playoff field, with the field set to be determined strictly by points and no more "win and in".
There have been quite a few surprises through the season's 14 races, and while many of them have been pleasant surprises, several drivers who were contenders a year ago have simply been nowhere to be found in 2026.
A couple playoff drivers, such as Team Penske's Austin Cindric and Joey Logano, have been hovering around the cut line for the past several months, and there is no reason to believe they will fall out of that mix entirely, even if they come up short.
But for several others, it might already be too late.
Here are five drivers from the 2026 postseason who simply aren't going to bounce back before the regular season ends.
Austin Dillon, Richard Childress Racing
Of the drivers who have historically benefited from "win and in", Austin Dillon tops the list. He has been to the playoffs five times since 2017, and it would have been six had his 2024 Richmond Raceway win not been encumbered. All five of those playoff appearances came due to "win and in"; he hasn't qualified on points since 2016.
While another Richmond win would be a great story for Dillon and the entire Richard Childress Racing organization following the tragic death of two-time champion Kyle Busch, it would not be enough to vault the driver of the No. 3 Chevrolet into this year's playoff picture like it was a year ago (and would have been two years ago).
Dillon is 24th in the point standings, 62 markers below the cut line.
Ross Chastain, Trackhouse Racing
While the whole "Trackhouse Racing stinks" narrative is consistently being debunked by Shane van Gisbergen, and due to a level of success on ovals, no less, that most fans would have deemed impossible coming into the 2026 season, Ross Chastain's struggles show that this team simply isn't capable of what it once was.
He has yet to finish a non-superspeedway race inside the top 15. He hasn't even finished higher than 20th in such a race since March, and he's only 26th in the point standings because of it, 67 points below the cut line. The No. 1 team has given nobody any reason to believe that they are capable of turning things around.
Josh Berry, Wood Brothers Racing
Josh Berry missing the playoffs always felt inevitable, after he and Austin Dillon were the only two drivers who made the playoffs in 2025 but would have missed had the 2026 postseason format been utilized a year early. Even Shane van Gisbergen, who was 25th in the 2025 regular season standings, would have gotten in a year ago, thanks to this year's 15 extra points for race winners.
Berry has struggled pretty much ever since earning his first career victory at Las Vegas Motor Speedway in March 2025. He's riding a seven-race streak of finishing 27th or worse and has not finished higher than ninth all year. He's 132 points below the cutoff in 31st.
Alex Bowman, Hendrick Motorsports
We get it; Alex Bowman missed four races due to vertigo. But even if you take his average points per race and multiply it over all 14 races, had he not been sidelined, he'd only be tied for 27th in the point standings with 23XI Racing's Riley Herbst, 82 points below the cut line. As it stands, he's 32nd, 146 points back.
It's already been announced that Herbst is set to be replaced by Corey Heim in 2027, and while Bowman did score back-to-back third place finishes a few weeks after returning to action, there has been a lot of talk about him potentially not being back in the No. 48 Chevrolet next year as well.
Hendrick Motorsports would have no shortage of drivers to choose from to replace him.
Connor Zilisch, Trackhouse Racing
We're only cheating here and including a driver from the previous season's O'Reilly Auto Parts Series playoffs because of just how much hype Connor Zilisch got heading into the year.
While those who expected the "next Jeff Gordon" to have won 10 races by now will conveniently hide behind the good old "it was always going to take some time" excuse, that sure wasn't the narrative when the rookie entered the year as one of the championship favorites.
Cody Ware is the only driver lower than Zilisch in the point standings, and while some of that can be attributed to Trackhouse Racing's struggles, a lot of it has indeed proven that it was always going to take time to adjust. He's 159 points below the cut line. He's only actually scored 147 points, and his top finish is only 14th.
Imagine that.
Race number 15 on the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series calendar is the FireKeepers Casino 400, which is set to be shown live on Amazon Prime Video from Michigan International Speedway starting at 3:00 p.m. ET this Sunday, June 7.
Don't miss any of the acton from the season's lone 2.0-mile oval!
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