Bubba Wallace fails to clinch a NASCAR playoff spot, but let's stop pretending

Six more drivers officially clinched NASCAR Cup Series playoff spots in Sunday afternoon's Dollar Tree 301 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. But 23XI Racing's Bubba Wallace, who entered the race 70 points above the cut line and finished second behind Team Penske's Ryan Blaney, wasn't one of them.

We get it. Math. Wallace can technically fall from 14th place to outside the top 16 in the regular season finale at Daytona International Speedway next Saturday night.

But sometimes reality transcends math, and the reality is that that is not going to happen.

Bubba Wallace locking into the NASCAR playoffs is a formality

Wallace is 75 points above the cut line, which sits between Trackhouse Racing's Shane van Gisbergen in 16th and RFK Racing's Ryan Preece in 17th, with 76 points left on the table. He is guaranteed to score one point in the Coke Zero Sugar 400 simply by competing.

Among drivers below the cut line, Preece is the only driver who can pass Wallace, and assuming Wallace simply competes in the 160-lap race around the four-turn, 2.5-mile (4.023-kilometer) high-banked Daytona Beach, Florida oval, he can only do so on a tiebreaker.

Preece would need to win stage one, win stage two, win the race, record the fastest lap, and have Wallace finish 36th or lower. Preece would own the tiebreaker if all of that happens.

And oh by the way, even that wouldn't be enough to knock Wallace out of the "Chase", as he would still need to fall behind SVG and Team Penske's Austin Cindric.

With the stage wins and race win off the table (plus the fastest lap point) due to Preece, there would be 53 points left on the table for SVG and Cindric. SVG is 44 points behind Wallace, meaning he would need to slot in close behind Preece the entire race (again, with Wallace still basically in last).

SVG does own the tiebreaker over Wallace due to his two wins, but Cindric, whose best finish of the year is third, does not, thanks to Wlalace's two runner-up finishes. Cindric is 31 points behind Wallace, a number that becomes extremely challenging to make up if Preece and SVG finish where they need to finish to pass the driver of the No. 23 Toyota.

Bottom line, there may be three playoff spots still up for grabs, but the battle to watch is for the final two. Cindric owns a 44-point lead over Preece, and SVG owns a 31-point lead over Preece.

For what it's worth, those leads would be 19 points and six points, respectively, if not for Preece's 25-point penalty back in May.

NBC's live coverage of the Coke Zero Sugar 400 is scheduled to begin at 7:30 p.m. ET this Saturday, August 29. Begin a free trial of FuboTV now and don't miss any of the action from Daytona International Speedway!

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